7/26/2019 problema-2-statistica (1)

1/12

nr.crt Perioada procentul St Et Prev X

43.8833333 43.88333

1 14-ian 43.5 43.9388333 -0.438833 43.93883

2 14-Feb 40.2 40.6393883 -0.439388 40.63939

3 14-Mar 41.4 41.8063939 -0.406394 41.80639

4 14-Apr 42.6 43.0180639 -0.418064 43.01806

5 14-mai 47.7 48.1301806 -0.430181 48.130186 14-iun 46.2 46.6813018 -0.481302 46.6813

7 14-iul 47.4 47.866813 -0.466813 47.86681

8 14-Aug 47.3 47.7786681 -0.478668 47.77867

9 14-Sep 42.3 42.7777867 -0.477787 42.77779

10 14-Oct 41.3 41.7277779 -0.427778 41.72778

11 14-noi 40.2 40.6172778 -0.417278 40.61728

12 14-ec 46.2 46.6061728 -0.406173 46.60617

13 15-ian 47.3 47.7660617 -0.466062 47.76606

14 15-Feb 42.1 42.5776606 -0.477661 42.57766

15 15-Mar 40.3 40.7257766 -0.425777 40.7257816 15-Apr 41.6 42.0072578 -0.407258 42.00726

17 15-mai 42.8 43.2200726 -0.420073 43.22007

18 15-iun 47.4 47.8322007 -0.432201 47.8322

19 15-iul 46.3 46.778322 -0.478322 46.77832

20 15-Aug 47.3 47.7677832 -0.467783 47.76778

21 15-Sep 41.5 41.9776778 -0.477678 41.97768

22 15-Oct 45.2 45.6197768 -0.419777 45.61978

23 15-noi 42.6 43.0561978 -0.456198 43.0562

24 15-ec 42.5 42.930562 -0.430562 42.93056

16-ian

me!ia 43.883333

alp#a 0.01

nr.crt la numar ti trend liniar prev x

1 40.2 -21 43.6339921 43.63399

2 41.4 -19 43.6653868 43.66539

3 42.6 -17 43.6967815 43.69678

4 47.7 -15 43.7281762 43.72818

5 46.2 -13 43.7595709 43.75957

6 47.4 -11 43.7909656 43.79097

et = Xt - Xt-1(1)

St = St-1+ h1et

Xt(m) = St

7/26/2019 problema-2-statistica (1)

2/12

7 47.3 -9 43.8223602 43.82236

8 42.3 -7 43.8537549 43.85375

9 41.3 -5 43.8851496 43.88515

10 40.2 -3 43.9165443 43.91654

11 46.2 -1 43.947939 43.94794

12 47.3 1 43.9793337 43.97933

13 42.1 3 44.0107284 44.0107314 40.3 5 44.0421231 44.04212

15 41.6 7 44.0735178 44.07352

16 42.8 9 44.1049125 44.10491

17 47.4 11 44.1363072 44.13631

18 46.3 13 44.1677019 44.1677

19 47.3 15 44.1990966 44.1991

20 41.5 17 44.2304912 44.23049

21 45.2 19 44.2618859 44.26189

22 42.6 21 44.2932806 44.29328

me!ia 43.96364

a&'0( 43.96364 43.602597 S0

b&t0( 0.015697 0.0313947 )0

nr.crt la numarSt )t *t +re% ,

0 43.602597 0.03139469 40.23139

1 40.2 43.630853 0.03108075 -0.031395 43.66193

2 41.4 43.43574 0.00846141 -2.261933 43.4442

3 42.6 43.359781 1.9397*-005 -0.844201 43.3598

4 47.7 43.793821 0.04342139 4.340199 43.83724

5 46.2 44.073518 0.06704897 2.362758 44.14057

6 47.4 44.46651 0.0996433 3.259433 44.56615

7 47.3 44.839538 0.12698177 2.733847 44.96652

8 42.3 44.699868 0.10031657 -2.66652 44.80018

9 41.3 44.450166 0.06531473 -3.500184 44.5154810 40.2 44.083933 0.02215992 -4.315481 44.10609

11 46.2 44.315483 0.04309899 2.093907 44.35858

12 47.3 44.652724 0.07251317 2.941418 44.72524

13 42.1 44.462714 0.0462608 -2.625237 44.50897

14 40.3 44.088077 0.00417105 -4.208974 44.09225

15 41.6 43.843023 -0.02075142 -2.492248 43.82227

16 42.8 43.720045 -0.03097414 -1.022272 43.68907

7/26/2019 problema-2-statistica (1)

3/12

17 47.4 44.060163 0.00613515 3.71093 44.0663

18 46.3 44.289669 0.02847217 2.233701 44.31814

19 47.3 44.616327 0.05829076 2.981859 44.67462

20 41.5 44.357156 0.02654459 -3.174618 44.3837

21 45.2 44.46533 0.03470758 0.8163 44.50004

22 42.6 44.310034 0.0157072 -1.900038 44.32574

alp#a 0.1

gama 0.01

nr.crt Xt St Tt Et Prev Et^

0 43.459524 0.08095238 43.54048

1 43.5 43.546429 0.09014286 -0.040476 43.63657 0.001638

2 40.2 43.302914 0.03141143 -3.436571 43.33433 11.81002

3 41.4 43.150893 0.00272491 -1.934326 43.15362 3.741616

4 42.6 43.108256 0.00165255 -0.553618 43.10991 0.3064935 47.7 43.578918 0.10345438 4.590091 43.68237 21.06894

6 46.2 43.944135 0.16380693 2.517628 44.10794 6.338449

7 47.4 44.447148 0.23964809 3.292058 44.6868 10.83765

8 47.3 44.958116 0.30191217 2.613204 45.26003 6.828836

9 42.3 44.974026 0.2527116 -2.960028 45.22674 8.761769

10 41.3 44.844064 0.18417686 -3.926737 45.02824 15.41927

11 40.2 44.555416 0.09761205 -4.82824 44.65303 23.31191

12 46.2 44.817726 0.13855148 1.546972 44.95628 2.393121

13 47.3 45.200649 0.19542594 2.343723 45.39608 5.493037

14 42.1 45.076468 0.13950444 -3.296075 45.21597 10.86411

15 40.3 44.734375 0.05118499 -4.915972 44.78556 24.16678

16 41.6 44.477004 -0.0025262 -3.18556 44.47448 10.14779

17 42.8 44.31703 -0.02601576 -1.674478 44.29101 2.803876

18 47.4 44.611913 0.04616396 3.108986 44.65808 9.665793

19 46.3 44.832269 0.08900242 1.641923 44.92127 2.695912

20 47.3 45.169144 0.14657699 2.378729 45.31572 5.658349

21 41.5 44.944149 0.08026256 -3.815721 45.02441 14.55973

22 45.2 45.051971 0.09377433 0.175588 45.14574 0.030831

alp#a 0.1

gama 0.02

p#i 0.01

S0 43.45952

)0 0.080952

7/26/2019 problema-2-statistica (1)

4/12

30

32

34

36

38

40

42

44

46

48

50

Model de nivel constant

7/26/2019 problema-2-statistica (1)

5/12

et = Xt - Xt-1(1)

St= St-1 + Tt-1 + h1et

Tt= Tt-1+ h2et

Xt(m)= St + m Tt

42

44

46

48

50

Model cu

7/26/2019 problema-2-statistica (1)

6/12

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 136

38

40

,t

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 1136

38

40

42

44

46

48

50 Mo!elul

,t

7/26/2019 problema-2-statistica (1)

7/12

$t

pre%$

7/26/2019 problema-2-statistica (1)

8/12

trend liniar

7/26/2019 problema-2-statistica (1)

9/12

12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22

pre% ,

12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22

eliniar 'i liniar

pre% lin pre% ,

7/26/2019 problema-2-statistica (1)

10/12

7/26/2019 problema-2-statistica (1)

11/12

7/26/2019 problema-2-statistica (1)

12/12