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TEORII PRIVIND

COMERULINTERNAIONAL

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Teorii clasice privind comerulinternaional

Teoria mercantilist Teoria avantajului absolut A.Smith) Teoria avantajului comparativ D.Ricardo)

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MERCANTILISMUL 1. Unica form a bogiei unei naiuni ar consta n bani, adic n metalele

preioase din care acetia erau confecionai aurul i argintul.

2. Profitul era obiectivul operaiunilor de comer, obinut n sferacirculaiei mrfurilor, mai ales n comerul exterior, datorit faptului cmrfurile erau vndute la preuri mai mari dect cele de cumprare.Profitul era astfel, un mijloc de sporire a avuiei statelor moderne.

Perioade: - Mercant i lismu l t impur iu (s is temu l m onetar )se baza pe acumularea

metalelor preioase n interiorul unui stat prin orice metod(mercantilismul spaniol i portughez). Gnditorii reprezentativi ai acesteiperioade au fost spaniolii Luiz Ortiz, Gonzales de Cellorigo, A. de Rojasi Wiliam Stafford.

- Mercantilismul dezvoltat (sistemul balanei comerciale)se baza pederularea unor fluxuri comerciale astfel nct volumul i valoareaexportului s fie mai mari dect volumul i valoarea importului. Diferenarespectiv (balana activ comercial, respectiv de pli) trebuia s intren ar sub form de metale preioase. (Antonio Serra, Antoine de

Montchretien, Thomas Mun)

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Mercantilitii au cercetat aspecte ale circulaieimrfurilor ale comerului exterior, ns au ignorat

importana studierii fenomenelor din sfera producieide mrfuri, ei fiind adepii unui protecionism vamaldur care presupunea intervenia statului neconomiile naionale n scopul protejrii industrieiautohtone de concurena strin.

Din punct de vedere politic mercantilismul a fostagreat de cercurile guvernamentale, de grupurileindustriale i chiar de lucrtori

Numeroase grupuri de interese au nregistrat efectenegative sub form de impozite mai mari, preuriridicate, meninerea ineficienei n economie,

ntrzierea restructurrii pe baze sntoase.

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Neomercantilism Economitii secolului XX (J.M.Keynes) au reevaluat teoriile

mercantiliste, considernd c acestea nu pot fi ignorate, ntruct deexemplu, preocuparea pentru obinerea unei balane de pli excedentare(mercantilismul dezvoltat) constituie o dovad a perspicacitii politice decare ar trebui s dea dovad guvernele rilor lumii.

Neomercantilismul revine la ideea rolului important al controlului statului

pentru pstrarea supremaiei pe pia. n viziunea neomercantilitilor,erodarea poziiei americane pe piaa mondial, n favoarea Japoniei i aGermaniei, se datoreaz unui liberalism exagerat practicat de SUA nrelaiile sale comerciale externe, fapt ce a permis concurenilor lor s aibacces la tehnologia i know-how-ul american.

R. Heilbroner i L.C. Thurow (1986) admit implicarea moderat a statuluin economie pentru c un sistem de pia comport puncte slabe iaspecte ineficiente, inerente naturii sale instituionale. Ca remediu seimpune o intervenie politic, deoarece nu exist alt msur dectaciunea politic atunci cnd mecanismul economic autoreglator

eueaz.

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Teoria avantajului absolut Adam Smith- The wealth of nations posibilitatea de a produce un bun cu o cantitate mai mic de factori

(input) dect oriunde altundeva n lume,

rile ar trebui s se specializeze n producerea acelor bunuri pentrucare dispun de un avantaj absolut,

prin participarea la comerul internaional, avuia tuturor rilorpoate fi sporit.

ignor faptul c pe piaa mondial exist parteneri inegali, c din

comerul exterior unii pierd, alii ctig, convins fiind c mnainvizibil funcioneaz identic att pe piaa intern ct i pe ceamondial, deci c piaa este capabil s asigure n mod spontanautoreglarea economiei de pia.

nu a studiat legile care guverneaz producia de mrfuri.

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Frontiera posibilitilor de producie

Specializarea n produciei avantajul din comerprin prisma avantajuluiabsolut

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Teoria avantajului comparativ

David Ricardo - Teoria costurilor comparative

de producie i a avantajelor relative reciprocen comerul internaional

ctigul realizat de ctre o naiune care produce i

vinde la extern bunurile pe care le realizeaz cu costuride producie mai mici relativ cu alte bunuri naionale, iarn schimbul lor procur alte mrfuri a cror realizare laintern se dovedete mai puin avantajoas.

Legea avantajului comparativ se poate enuna astfel:Este ntotdeauna mai avantajos pentru dou ri sdezvolte relaii comerciale bilaterale, cu condiia ca eles se specializeze n producerea acelui bun n care

nregistreaz cel mai mare avantaj relativ sau cel maimic dezavantaj relativ.

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Necesarul de producie

Teoria valorii internaionale(John Stuart Mill)

a ajuns la concluzia c raportul de schimb al unei ri ar fi cu att maiavantajos cu ct cererea pentru mrfurile ei este mai mare, iar cerereaproprie pentru mrfurile de provenien strin este mai mic.

fiecare ar are de ctigat din participarea la schimburileinternaionale, acceptnd c aceste ctiguri sunt inegale.

n mod paradoxal, ar avea de ctigat rile nedezvoltate pentru ccererea lor este mai mic, genernd un raport de schimb maiavantajos, iar rile dezvoltate ar obine un raport de schimb maidezavantajos pentru c au cererea cu mult mai mare.

Realitatea economic a artat, ns, c lucrurile nu stau aa. Pe piaamondial partenerii sunt inegali, rile mici, neindustrializate aurmas mult n urma rilor puternic industrializate.

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Modelul Heckscher Ohlin Samuelson Teoria dotrii cufactori de producie) O ar dispune de avantaj comparativ n producerea unui bun atunci cnd

utilizeaz intensiv factorul caracterizat prin abunden factorial relativ n

raport cu partenerul su comercial. comerul internaional corespunde unui schimb de factori abundeni contra

factori rari (rile vor exporta produse a cror fabricaie a necesitat ocantitate important de factori abundeni i vor importa bunuri fabricate cuajutorul factorilor care, n cazul ei, sunt deficitari).

Samuleson - schimburile internaionale duc la egalizarea remunerriifactorilor de producie, n urmtoarele condiii:

Pe pieele naionale i internaionale exist o concuren perfect; Factorii de producie nu pot depi frontierele naionale i sunt omogeni (nu se face

distincia ntre munc mai mult sau mai puin calificat);

Factorii, care sunt perfect mobili i n concuren perfect n cadrul frontierelornaionale, sunt remunerai conform productivitii marginale;

Randamentele sunt descresctoare, prin urmare specializarea n cadrul fiecrei rieste parial;

Sunt neglijate costurile de transport;

Funciile de producie sunt lineare i omogene pentru fiecare bun; ele sunt identice

pentru fiecare bun n diferitele ri.

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Demonstraia lui Samuelson a fost ulterior criticat,mai ales pentru urmtoarele dou puncte vulnerabile:

1. egalizarea absolut a factorilor de producie nu se poate realiza n

practic, pentru c depinde de: a. lipsa de omogenitate a factorilor: n medie, munca unui lucrtor

american este mai eficient dect a unuia afgan; calitatea pmntuluidifer de la o zon la alta, nici factorul capital nu prezint omogenitate;

b. mobilitatea interioar i omogenitatea produselor nu sunt perfecte;sectoarele interne comunic deseori cu dificultate cu cele externe;

c.tehnicile de producie sunt diferite. 2. departe de a realiza o egalizare a remunerrii factorilor, comerul

internaional poate agrava disparitile-- argumente: a. funciile de producie sunt diferite n fiecare ar. A spune c o

ar se specializeaz n producerea acelui bun care utilizeaz factoriiabundeni i, deci, mai ieftini nseamn c ea poate face acest lucru, nui faptul c l va face cu siguran, funcia de producie i condiiile deformare a cererii prevalnd n faa schimbului. Chiar dac funciile deproducie sunt identice, costurile constante, specializarea tinde screasc preul factorilor utilizai i s-l scad pe al altora, care,

dimpotriv, cresc n exterior, de unde disparitatea ntre preul factorilor.

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b. Chiar n ipoteza a doi factori i dou produse, cele dou produse potmodifica intensitatea cu care sunt utilizai factorii, n funcie de nivelul deproducie la care se plaseaz: produsele alimentare pot fi intensive n muncpentru o anumit valoare a funciei de producie i n capital pentru o altvaloare. Atunci cnd sunt considerai mai mult de doi factori sau produse,egalitatea este tot mai rar.

Paradoxu l lui Leon tief f

Plecnd de la observaia c SUA reprezint o ar abundent n capital, a pusla punct un test prin care urma s demonstreze c exporturile americane sunt

mai intensive n capital dect importurile. Pentru a-i elabora testul, Leontieff a construit o balan input-output pentru

economia american. Leontieff a analizat 200 de industrii, pe care le-a separatn industrii exportatoare (cu un sold [exportimport] pozitiv) i importatoare(cu un sold comercial negativ).

Exporturile apar mult mai intensive n munc dect importurile, care erau, larndul lor, mai intensive n capital dect exporturile.

Argumentnd faptul c un lucrtor american are o productivitate de trei orimai ridicat dect a unuia strin, el a conchis c SUA erau n fapt abundenten factorul munc i nu n capital. Productivitatea superioar a muncitoriloramericani deriv din existena din abunden a unui al treilea factor de

producie specific SUA, managementul.

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Teorii moderne bazate pe firm) Teoria disponibilitii produselorpentru comerul internaional Kravis) Sandretto , Gendarme Modelele Nord-Sud ale comeruluiinegal Teoria similaritii ntre ri Steffan

Linder) Teorii ale neotehnologiilor Posner,Vernon) Teoria lui Michael Porter

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Teoria disponibilitii produselor pentru comerulinternaional Kravis) Ideea de baz a teoriei este c orice ar tinde s

importe mrfurile care nu pot fi produse n interiorul eii s exporte mrfurile pe care le poate produce ncantiti mai mari dect cele necesare consumului

intern i n condiii mai avantajoase dect n alte ri.

n viziunea lui Kravis, disponibilitile de export depindde patru factori:

a) nzestrarea cu resurse naturale; b) amploarea i semnificaia diferenierii produselor; c) progresul tehnologic n decursul timpului;

d) politica economic extern a statului respectiv.

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Sandretto:- Transnaionalele constituie prghii importante care influeneazdezvoltarea comerului internaional i adncirea diviziuniiinternaionale a muncii,- Extinderea transnaionalelor are att un efect benefic asuprarilor n curs de dezvoltare, contribuind la dezvoltarea acestora, cti un efect distrugtor, fcnd imposibil existena unei concurenepure i perfecte pe pieele naionale,

-ntreprinderile transnaionale care provin din ri industrializateconstituie pe de o parte, un sprijin pentru politicile naionale, iar pede alt parte, reduc eficiena interveniei statelor n economie.

R. Gendarmen lucrarea Vrjitoare n

economie: multinaionalele (1981) apreciazflexibilitatea firmelor transnaionale n afaceri iconstat rmnerea n urm a oamenilor detiin n studierea rolului acestora.

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Teoria similaritii ntre ri SteffanLinder) explic bazele comerului intraindustrial, pornind de la rolul

firmei productoare de bunuri manufacturate n economiaunei ri considernd c schimburile internaionale cuproduse manufacturate sunt datorate existenei aceloraipreferine ale panelelor de consumatori n toate rile lumii.

posibilitile de ptrundere pe alte piee, valorificndavantajele economiilor de scar.

constat c pieele cele mai avantajoase exist n rile ncare preferinele consumatorilor sunt asemntoare cu cele

ale consumatorilor din propria ar. Fora concurenial afirmei este asigurat de abilitatea ntreprinztorilor de aalege alternativa de combinare a factorilor de producie ceamai favorabil pentru a obine cele mai bune rezultateposibile cu ajutorul resurselor de care dispun.

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Curba experienei

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Teoria lui Michael Porter teoria avantajului competitiv a pornit de la premisa c

firmele pot obine avantaje competitive prin deinereaavantajelor tehnologice i nu prin abundena relativ afactorilor de producie.

Firmele pot crea avantaje competitive prin strategiileadoptate, prin gama de produse obinute i prindrepturile de proprietate intelectual deinute, iarproprietatea intelectual are rdcini n putereaimaginaiei.

avantajele competitive ale unei ri sunt influenate dedou categorii de determinani care alctuiesc structuraputernic a unui diamant naional.

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Prima c ategor ie:

Determinanii factoriali (resursele umane, naturale, de capital, decunotine, infrastructur)

Determinanii cererii se refer la dimensiunea, structura,internaionalizarea i ritmul de cretere al cererii, complexitateacumprtorilor, capacitatea unei industrii naionale de a prefiguracererea mondial, etc.

Ramurile industriale din amonte i aval contribuie la cretereacompetitivitii internaionale a productorului.

Strategia i structura firmelor i concurena dintre acestea includobiectivele firmelor, metodele de management utilizate, motivareasalariailor, nivelul competiiei existente n industrie, etc.

A dou a categor ie de factor i o formeazstatul i ntmplarea sau

ansa. M. Porter consider c statul are un rol principal ninfluenarea evoluiei factorilor de producie prin politici deinvestiii, subvenii, prin reglementarea pieelor de capital, prinpolitici educaionale. Statul singur, ns, nu are puterea de a creaavantaje competitive. Politicile publice trebuie s se armonizeze cucele private pentru construirea unei configuraii durabile adiamantului.

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Determinanii avantajelor competitivenaionale

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n viziunea lui M. Porter economiile naionale parcurgpatru stadii ale dezvoltrii avantajelor competitive ncadrul creterii economice.

stadiul avantajelor determinate de dotarea cu factori deproducie,

stadiul avantajelor competitive determinate de investiii, stadiul avantajelor competitive determinate de inovare,

stadiul avantajelor competitive determinate de avuianaional.

Printre cauzele care pot duce la distrugereadiamantului, adic la pierderea unui avantaj competitivse numr: modificrile tehnologice, nrutireadeterminanilor factoriali, reducerea competitivitii ninteriorul economiei naionale, instabilitatea politic saueconomic, interveniile nejustificate ale statului lanivelul pieei.

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Teoria decalajului tehnologicM.V. Posner are ca punct de plecare cercetarea corelaiei dintre

exporturile unei ri i eforturile de cercetare anterioareacestora.

n rile n care se fac cheltuieli mai mari de cercetare idezvoltare, este mai pronunat procesul de inovare, areloc o nnoire mai puternic a produselor, ceea ce lepermite acestora s menin un nsemnat decalaj fa derestul rilor lumii. Acest decalaj le asigur o poziie demonopol n privina exportului produselor respective,

care, chiar dac este temporar, le aduce mari avantaje,asigurndu-le o eficien ridicat a comerului exterior,

ntruct nu exist riscuri unei concurene serioase dinpartea partenerilor lor rmai n urm sub aspectul

nivelului tehnologiei folosite.

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Teoria ciclului de via a produsuluiR.Vernon avantajul relativ nu este static, o dat pentru totdeauna, ci se poate

modifica n timp, n funcie de modificrile care pot interveni naciunile ntreprinse pentru valorificarea respectivului produs pepiaa mondial i de reaciile pe care le au fa de el concurenii realisau poteniali.

Durata i dimensiunea avantajului relativ, privit n mod dinamic,

depind de etapele pe care le parcurge un produs n decursulprezenei lui pe pia, ncepnd cu inovarea, respectiv difereniereaproduselor la scar naional, continund cu monopolul riirespective n perioada lansrii produsului pe piaa mondial, cuaprarea acestui monopol n faza de maturizare a produsului prin

msuri de protejare a avantajelor ctigate i terminnd cu depireamonopolului rii exportatoare i abandonarea msurilor de aprareprin protejarea produciei naionale, atunci cnd produsul respectiv aajuns s fie standardizat la scara internaional, s fie produs maiieftin de concurenii care l-au asimilat i deci s fie importat ncondiii mai avantajoase dect cele din ara care l-a lansat.

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Teoria rivalitii strategice globale Paul Krugmani Kevin LancasterCerceteaz influena pe care o au rivalitile dintremarile companii transnaionale asupra comeruluiinternaional i pleac de la premisa c acestea au ladispoziie mijloace importante de obinere i meninerea unor avantaje competitive durabile:

Deinerea unor drepturi de proprietate intelectual Investiiile n cercetare-dezvoltare Dezvoltarea economiilor de scar i de gam Valorificarea curbei de experien

Drepturile de proprietate intelectual constituie un instrumentde dezvoltare economic: Proprietatea intelectual este uninstrument aflat n serviciul dezvoltrii economice i al obineriibogiei, al crui potenial nu a fost exploatat n ntregime n toaterile mai ales n rile n curs de dezvoltare.

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EVOLUII RECENTE N COMERULINTERNAIONALTendine n evoluia comerului internaional n secolul

XX

Evoluia economiei mondiale a fost direct determinat deconsecinele negative ale primului rzboi mondial i de evoluiavieii social-politice dintr-o serie de ri europene.

Desfurarea activitii economice ntre 1919-1929 se caracterizeazprintr-o criz economic motenit din anii rzboiului.

Piaa latino-american, dominat pn la rzboi de Anglia, seorienteaz ctre SUA.

n Europa, creterea cea mai spectaculoas s-a nregistrat nGermania, puternic sprijinit de marile investiii de capital, a creiproducie a crescut cu 127% fa de anul 1913, producia de crbunedepind producia cumulat a Angliei i Franei. ProduciaGermaniei era destinat exportului pentru a achita datoriile derzboi, ceea ce a dus la o cretere a flotei comerciale, care ajunge pe

locul 4 n lume.

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n timpul crizei, Frana era printre primii productori deoel, ocupnd locul 2 la producia de automobile;nregistreaz ns deficite n comer, ponderea ei n

schimburile mondiale fiind de 6% n 1929, fa de 7% n1913. n ceea ce privete Japonia, a cunoscut o perioad de

nviorare a industriei i comerului, mai ales prindezvoltarea industriei metalurgice, a construciilor de

maini i industriei chimice. O retrospectiv a evoluiei volumului valoric a comerului

internaional n prima jumtate a secolului XX - cu suiurii coboruri deosebite, de la 33,1 miliarde de dolari n

anul 1900, la 117,2 miliarde de dolari n 1920, pentru ca n1940 s fie de numai 41,6miliarde de dolari - permite s seremarce contrastul acestei evoluii cu creterea constanta volumului valoric a comerului internaional n a douajumtate a secolului XX.

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Trsturi principale ale comerului internaionalntre anii 1950-2000 n aceast perioad s-a nregistrat cel mai nalt ritm de

cretere valoric(12%), cu o perioad de vrf de 20,3%,pentru anii 1971-1980,astfel c din 1950 pn n 1998, volumulvaloric al exporturilor mondiale a sporit de aproximativ 88 ori,adic de la 61 miliarde de dolari la 5338 miliarde de dolari.

Volumul valoric al comerului internaional, n a doua jumtatea secolului XX, a nregistrat o dinamic deosebit de rapid,superioar dinamicii tuturor celorlali indicatori sintetici aieconomiei mondiale (PIB, producie industrial, producieagricol).

Comerul internaional a devansat, ca ritm de cretere,precum i ca volum valoric absolut, rezervele de aur i devizecentralizate ale rilor nesocialiste. S-a ajuns ca la sfritulanilor 80, rezervele de aur i devize s reprezinte numai 24%din volumul valoric al importurilor rilor nesocialiste.

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Trsturi i tendine ale dinamicii i volumuluicomerului internaional n prezentECONOMIA MONDIAL I COMERULINTERNAIONAL N 2011

World trade growth decelerated sharply in 2011 as the globaleconomy struggled under the influence of natural disasters,financial uncertainty and civil conflict. A slowdown in trade had

been expected after the strong rebound of 2010 but the earthquakein Japan and flooding in Thailand shook global supply chains, andfears of sovereign default in the euro area weighed heavily in theclosing months of the year. The civil war in Libya also reduced oilsupplies and contributed to sharply higher prices. All of these

factors combined to produce below average growth in trade in2011.

The volume of world merchandise trade rose 5.0 per cent in 2011,accompanied by global output growth of 2.4 per cent. This markeda significant slowdown from 2010, when trade advanced 13.8 per

cent and output expanded by 3.8 per cent (see Figure 2.1.)

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Trsturi i tendine ale dinamicii i volumuluicomerului internaional n prezentECONOMIA MONDIAL I COMERULINTERNAIONAL N 2012

World trade growth fell to 2.0 per cent in 2012 from 5.2 per cent in2011, and remained sluggish in the opening months of 2013 as theeconomic slowdown in Europe suppressed global import demand. Theabrupt deceleration of trade in 2012 was mainly attributable to slow

growth in developed economies and recurring bouts of uncertaintyover the future of the euro.

Flagging output and high unemployment in developed countriesreduced imports and fed through to a lower pace of export growth in

both developed and developing economies. More positive economicdevelopments in the United States in the early months of 2013 wereoffset by lingering weakness in the European Union, as peripheral euroarea economies continued to struggle and even core euro areaeconomies increasingly felt the impact of the downturn in the region.

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THE WORLD ECONOMY AND TRADE IN 2012Chinas growth outpaced that of other leading economies

in 2012, partly cushioning the shortfall in demand fromdeveloped economies. However, the countrys economicperformance in the first quarter was weaker than expectedas exports were still constrained by weak demand inEurope. Other developing economies saw their trade and

output slow more sharply than Chinas in the middle of2012 before staging a partial recovery.

Overall, world trade and output grew more slowly than

their long-term average rates in 2012 and this

weakness appears to have extended into the first

quarter of 2013 based on available monthly data

(see Figure 2.1).

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Figure 2.1: Growth in volume of world merchandise trade andGDP, 2005-2012 (annual percentage change)

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Developed economies only managed a 1 per cent increase inexports and a 0.1 per cent decline in imports for the year. Thegrowth of exports from developing economies was in line withexpectations, but the rate for imports was lower than expected.

In 2012, the dollar value of world merchandise exports onlyincreased two-tenths of 1 per cent (i.e. 0.2 per cent) to US$ 18.3trillion, leaving it essentially unchanged. The slower growth in thedollar value of world trade compared with trade in volume terms isexplained by falling prices for traded goods. Some of the biggest

price declines were recorded for commodities such as coffee (-22per cent), cotton (-42 per cent), iron ore (-23 per cent) and coal (-21per cent).

The value of world commercial services exports rose just 2 per centin 2012 to US$ 4.3 trillion, with strong differences in growth rates

across countries and regions. For example, the United States sawits exports of commercial services climb 4 per cent, while those ofGermany dropped 2 per cent and Frances tumbled 7 per cent. Onthe import side, several European countries recorded sharpdeclines, including Italy (-8 per cent), France (-10 per cent), Portugal

(-16 per cent) and Greece (-18 per cent).

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Indicators of production, business sentiment andemployment painted a mixed picture of economic conditionsin the first quarter of 2013. Purchasing managers indicessuggested that the euro area downturn had accelerateddespite continued resilience in Germany. At the same time,the leading indicators for the United States, Japan, China andthe Republic of Korea pointed to a firming of growth in thesecountries.

Unemployment in the United States fell to its lowest levelsince before the economic crisis at 7.6 per cent in April 2013,whereas the rate for the euro area stood at close to 12 percent in February. Together, these figures point to ongoingweakness in European import demand even as conditionsgradually improve elsewhere. The fall in EU import demand in2012 had a particularly strong impact on global trade flowsdue to the large weight of the European Union in worldimports (32 per cent in 2012 including trade within the EU, 15

per cent excluding it).

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Fi 2 2 Q t l h di t d fl f l t d

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Figure 2.2. Quarterly merchandise trade flows of selectedeconomies, 2010Q1-2012Q4 (seasonally adjusted volumeindices, 2010Q1=100)

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Japanese imports recorded strong growth for most of the year before dropping 6per cent in Q4. The rise in imports in the earlier quarters was partly due toincreased purchases of fuels from abroad for use in conventional thermalelectricity generation following the loss of output from nuclear power stationsafter the Fukushima disaster. The dollar value of Japanese imports rose 3.5 percent in 2012, but imports from the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia were up 8 per centand purchases from Qatar (mostly natural gas) rose 19 per cent. Japans

merchandise trade deficit of US$ 87 billion for 2012 was the largest everrecorded for the country in a dataset stretching back to 1948.

Quarterly developments for trade in commercial services show a similar pattern

to trade in goods, with year-on-year growth in dollar values flat or declining inEurope and growing in other regions.

The growth of world merchandise trade in 2012 was much lower than one wouldexpect given the rate of world gross domestic product (GDP) growth for the year.Under normal conditions, the growth rate for trade is usually around twice that ofGDP, but in 2012 the ratio of trade growth to GDP growth fell to around 1:1.

Possible reasons for the decline in this ratio include reduced access to credit indistressed euro area economies and the perception in 2011 and the first half of2012 that one or more countries might be forced to leave the euro. The threat ofthe latter has receded following the European Central Banks promise to support

the euro with bond purchases, and as a result the WTO expects the usual ratio oftrade growth to GDP growth to re-establish itself going forward.

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Despite the unusually slow rate of trade volume growth in 2012, the ratio of worldexports of merchandise and commercial services to world GDP in current dollarterms only dipped slightly, from around 32 per cent, and remained close to itspeak value of 33 per cent in 2008 (see Figure 1.3).

It should be noted that slowing economic growth in Europe has adisproportionate impact on world trade due to the fact that by convention weinclude trade between EU member states in world trade totals. However, if wewere to treat the European Union as a single entity, which it is for purposes oftrade policy, the slowdown in world trade in 2012 would not appear as extreme.In this case, world trade growth would be 3.2 per cent in 2012 rather than 2.0 per

cent. The 2.0 per cent growth in world merchandise trade in 2012 was below theaverage rate of 5.3 per cent for the last 20 years (1992-2012) and well below theprecrisis average rate of 6.0 per cent (1990-2008) (see Figure 1.4). Thedifference between the earlier trend and actual trade outcomes in recent yearsappears to be widening, albeit slowly. This gap in percentage terms was equal to11 per cent in 2010, 12 per cent in 2011 and 15 per cent in 2012.

At some point in the future, trade growth will again surpass its 20 year average, ifonly because this average keeps falling with every passing year of sub-pargrowth. When or if it will manage to bridge the gap with its precrisis trend remainsto be seen. In addition to a durable level shift in the series, it appears that thefundamental growth rate of world trade may have also been reduced. To return tothe previous trend would require a period of very rapid trade expansion at some

point in the future.

Fi 2 3 R ti f ld t f h di d

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Figure 2.3. Ratio of world exports of merchandise andcommercial services to world GDP, 1980-2012 (ratio of

current US$ values)

Fi 2 4 V l f ld h di t 1990

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Figure 2.4. Volume of world merchandise exports, 1990-2012 (index, 1990=100)

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ECONOMIC GROWTH Economies in the euro area stalled in 2012 and the

sovereign debt crisis flared again in the summer,pushing long-term borrowing costs for Italy and Spainabove 6 per cent and stoking uncertainty about the

future of the common currency. Growth also slowedworryingly in the United States in Q4, and Japan slippedin and out of recession during the year. As a result,world GDP growth at market exchange rates dropped to

2.1 per cent in 2012 from 2.4 per cent in 2011. This paceof expansion was below the average of 3.2 per cent forthe two decades preceding the financial crisis and alsobelow the 2.8 per cent average of the last 20 yearsincluding the crisis period (see Table 2.1).

Table 1.1: Real GDP and merchandise trade volume growth by

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g yregion, 2010-2012 (annual percentage change)

Policy responses from the European Central Bank and the Federal

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Reserve in the middle of 2012 appeared to have succeeded in easingthe sovereign debt crisis and putting US growth on a firmer footing.Borrowing costs in the euro area returned to more manageable levelsin the second half of the year and employment picked up in the United

States, but this progress remained fragile.

The 2.3 per cent growth in the United States was nearly double the 1.2per cent rate for developed economies as a whole in 2012. Japansincrease for the year was also above average at 1.9 per cent, but the

European Unions growth was close to zero at -0.3 per cent.

Developing countries and the Commonwealth of Independent States(CIS) collectively raised their output by 4.7 per cent in 2012, with Africarecording the fastest growth of any country or region at 9.3 per cent.The outsized growth rate for the African continent was mostly due tothe resurgence of Libyan output after oil supplies were disrupted bycivil conflict in 2011, but growth in Sub-Saharan Africa was still abovethe world average at 4.0 per cent.

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Chinas GDP advanced 7.8 per cent, while Indiarecorded a 5.2 per cent increase. However, thenewly industrialized Asian economies of Hong Kong

China), the Republic of Korea, Singapore andChinese Taipei registered a disappointing 1.8 percent increase as slumping European demandpenalized their exports. The next fastest growing region after Africa wasAsia 3.8 per cent) followed by the CIS 3.7), theMiddle East 3.3 per cent), South and CentralAmerica 2.6 per cent), North America 2.3 per cent)

and Europe -0.1 per cent). Aggregate quarterlyfigures for world GDP growth are not readilyavailable, but such growth likely slowed towards theend of the year as output in the European Unioncontracted in Q4 and US and Japanese growthslowed.

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KEY ASPECTS OF TRADE FLOWS IN 2012 World merchandise exports stagnated in value terms in 2012

while exports of commercial services increased by 2 per cent.

Top five merchandise exporters represent 36% of worldexports, almost same share as the largest RTAs

EU merchandise exports stagnated in 2012, reflecting uncertainty in the

euro area. Developed economies export more than half of world merchandise

exports but saw a decline of 3 per cent in their exports in 2012. Incontrast, exports of developing countries went up by 4 per cent.

In South and Central America, growth of merchandise exports from both

MERCOSUR and the Andean Community declined by nearly 30percentage points in 2012, from 26 per cent and 35 per cent growth in2011 to -5 per cent and 5 per cent growth in 2012, respectively.

Merchandise exports of least developed countries plunged to 1 percent growth in 2012, from 25 per cent in 2011. Their share of world

merchandise exports remains at 1 per cent.

G th f h di t t i th BRIC

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Growth of merchandise exports was greater in the BRIC

(Brazil, Russia, India, China), rising by 4.5 per cent in 2012,than in NAFTA (North American Free Trade Agreement) or

the European Union.

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M h di t d li htl i

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Merchandise exports recovered slightly involume terms in 2012

World merchandise exports and gross domestic product(GDP) both grew by 2.5 per cent in 2012.

Africa and North America experienced the highest growthin merchandise exports in volume terms, recording 6.0

per cent and 4.5 per cent respectively. The highestgrowth in imports was recorded by Africa and the MiddleEast, with 11.5 per cent and 8.0 per cent respectively.

World merchandise exports and GDP have recorded

positive growth since the 2009 economic crisis, but theirrates have declined steadily. Merchandise exportsdeclined from 14.0 per cent to 2.0 per cent between 2010and 2012 while GDP fell from 4.0 per cent to 2.0 per centover the same period.

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China in close pursuit of US as leadingmerchandise trader

The United States is still the worlds biggest trader inmerchandise, with imports and exports totalling US$3,881 billion in 2012. Its trade deficit amounts to US$790 billion, 4.9 per cent of its GDP.

China follows closely behind the United States, withmerchandise trade totalling US$ 3,867 billion in 2012.Chinas trade surplus was US$ 230 billion (2.8 per centof its GDP). Germany is in third place, with a trade

surplus of US$ 240 billion in 2012, 7.0 per cent of itsGDP.

Most EU countries saw declines in their merchandiseexports in 2012 due to structural problems in the euro

area.

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Exports of commercial services slow as

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Exports of commercial services slow asEuropean trade declines

World exports of commercial services rose by 2 per cent, to US$4,350 billion, in 2012 largely due to a decline in European trade.

Europes exports of commercial services declined by 2 per centin 2012, following a recovery in 2011, due to the regionsfinancial instability and depressed economy. European

economies accounted for 47 per cent of global exports ofcommercial services in 2012. Exports of commercial servicesalso slowed in other regions. In Asia and North America, exportsexpanded by 6 per cent and 5 per cent respectively in 2012,roughly half of the growth recorded in 2011.

The Middle East was the most dynamic region, with exports ofcommercial services increasing by 13 per cent in 2012, followedby the Commonwealth of Independent States with 9 per cent.Africas exports rose by 6 per cent in 2012 following stagnationin 2011.

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Leading European exporters see decline in

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Leading European exporters see decline incommercial services

Exports of commercial services by leading European traders

declined significantly in 2012 due to the regions depressedeconomy. The United Kingdom, the worlds second-largest servicesexporter, saw exports decline by 3 per cent while Germanysexports contracted by 1 per cent. France saw a more pronounceddecline, with exports down by 6 per cent. Europes decline in

exports was largely due to a 2 per cent decrease in exports ofother commercial services, in particular other businessservices and financial services.

Exports of commercial services by other major traders continued togrow in 2012, although at a slower pace than in the previous year. In

the United States, the worlds leading exporter of commercialservices, exports rose by 6 per cent. In Asia, Chinas exports of commercial services rose by 8 per cent

in 2012, Indias by 3 per cent and in Hong Kong, China, exports roseby 5 per cent. Japan was the only large exporter of services in the

region to record stagnant growth.

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