Constantin Anghelache

ROMNIA 2014 Starea economic pe calea redresrii

Redactor: Prof. univ. dr. Constantin ANGHELACHE

Coperta: Adriana POPESCU

Revizie text: Daniela MARINESCU

Tehnoredactare computerizat: Nicoleta BOBOCEA Conf. univ. dr. Alexandru MANOLE

Lector univ. dr. Mdlina Gabriela ANGHEL

Descrierea CIP a Bibliotecii Naionale a Romniei ANGHELACHE, CONSTANTIN

Romnia 2014: starea economic pe calea redresrii / Constantin Anghelache. Bucureti : Editura Economic, 2014

ISBN 978-973-709-725-5

338(498)

Constantin Anghelache

ROMNIA 2014 Starea economic pe calea redresrii

ISBN 978-973-709-725-5

Copyright Editura Economic, 2014

Autorul este responsabil de clarificarea dreptului de utilizare a informaiilor cuprinse n lucrare.

CUPRINS

Prefa .................................................................................... 21

Preface .................................................................................... 27

Introducere ............................................................................ 33

Introductory chapter. The economic situation of Romania by the middle of 2014 ........................................... 57 1.1. The major macroeconomic evolutions ............................. 58 1.2. The Gross Domestic Product evolution ........................... 61 1.3. The GDP alteration factors by categories of resources.................................................................................. 64 1.4. The GDP evolution by categories of utilizations ............. 66 1.5. The achievement of the Gross Domestic Product by ownership forms ................................................................. 68 1.6. Direct foreign investments ............................................... 70 1.7. The inflation (consumer prices) evolution ....................... 71 1.8. The industrial production indices ..................................... 75 1.9. The production indices in agriculture .............................. 79 1.10. Investments in constructions .......................................... 83 1.11. Production of services .................................................... 86 1.12. The international trade ................................................... 89 1.13. The population and the labor force market .................. 100

Capitolul 1. Starea economic a Romniei la mijlocul anului 2014 ............................................................ 113 1.1. Principalele evoluii macroeconomice ........................... 114 1.2. Evoluia Produsului Intern Brut ..................................... 117 1.3. Factorii de modificare a Produsului Intern Brut pe categorii de resurse ........................................................... 120

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1.4. Evoluia Produsului Intern Brut pe categorii de utilizri .................................................................................. 122 1.5. Realizarea PIB pe forme de proprietate ........................ 124 1.6. Investiii strine directe .................................................. 125 1.7. Evoluia inflaiei (preurile de consum) ......................... 126 1.8. Indicii produciei industriale .......................................... 130 1.9. Indicii produciei din agricultur .................................... 133 1.10. Investiiile n construcii............................................... 137 1.11. Producia de servicii ..................................................... 140 1.12. Comerul internaional ................................................. 142 1.13. Populaia i piaa forei de munc ................................ 153

Capitolul 2. Evoluia social-economic a Romniei n perioada 1997-2000 ......................................................... 165 (Social-economic evolution of Romania during the period 1997-2000) 2.1. Situaia social-economic general ................................ 165 (General social-economic situation) 2.2. Situaia economic a Romniei la sfritul anului 2000 ....................................................................................... 177 (Economic situation of Romania at the end of 2000) 2.3. Principalele efecte ale programului social-economic pentru anul 2000.................................................................... 181 (Effects of the governing program for the year 2000)

Capitolul 3. Evoluia social-economic n perioada 2001-2004 ............................................................................. 195 (Economical evolution during the period 2001-2004) 3.1. Msuri viznd depirea perioadelor de iarn i pregtirea campaniilor agricole de primvar ....................... 197 (Preoccupation to overcome winter periods and preparation of spring agricultural campaign)

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3.2. Preocupri pentru relansarea economic ........................ 200 (Preoccupations for economic re-launch)

3.2.1. Reechilibrare macroeconomic ............................... 201 (Macroeconomic re-equlibrium) 3.2.2. Msuri de politic monetar i de control al cursului de schimb ............................................................ 203 (Measures of monetary policy and for the control of the exchange rate) 3.2.3. Sprijinirea mediului de afaceri ................................ 204 (Support for the business environment) 3.2.4. Agricultura necesit surse i timp ........................... 205 (The agriculture needs sources and time) 3.2.5. Msuri viznd dezvoltarea construciei de locuine .............................................................................. 207 (Measures aimed at developing construction of dwellings) 3.2.6. Nevoia dezvoltrii infrastructurii i modernizrii transporturilor.................................................................... 208 (The need to develop infrastructure and modernize transport 3.2.7. Prioriti privind mbuntirea comunicaiilor i tehnologiei informaiei ...................................................... 209 (Priorities regarding the improvement of communications and information technology) 3.2.8. Programe pentru reabilitarea turismului ................. 210 (Programs for re-habilitation of tourism) 3.2.9. Utilizarea raional a apelor .................................... 210 (Rational usage of waters) 3.2.10. Protecia mediului nconjurtor ............................. 211 (Protection of the surrounding environment) 3.2.11. ntreprinderile mici i mijlocii o prioritate ............ 213 (Small and Medium Enterprises - a priority) 3.2.12. Continuarea procesului de privatizare ................... 215 (The continuation of the privatization process)

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3.2.13. Sectorul bancar i de asigurri decizii cu marj ridicat de risc .................................................... 216 (Banking and insurance sector - high risk margin decisions) 3.2.14. Atragerea investiiilor strine prioritate vital .................................................................................. 217 (Attracting foreign investments - vital priority) 3.2.15. Relansarea activitii de comer ............................ 218 (Re-launching trade activity)

3.3. Msuri privind combaterea srciei i a omajului binom al economiei de pia ............................................. 219 (Measures for fighting poverty and unemployment - binome of the market economy) 3.4. Asistena social, starea de sntate a populaiei i protecia copilului .............................................................. 220 (Social assistance, population health and child protection) 3.5. Programe n domeniul educaiei, cercetrii i culturii ............................................................................... 222 (Programs in education, research and culture) 3.6. Consolidarea statului de drept i accelerarea reformei n justiie ................................................................................ 226 (Consolidate the law state and acceleration of reform in the judicial field) 3.7. Aprarea naional, ordinea public i sigurana ceteanului prioriti naionale .......................... 227 (National defense, public order and citizen's safety - national priorities) 3.8. Msuri privind reforma administraiei publice centrale i locale .................................................................... 228 (Measures regarding the reform of central and local public administration) 3.9. Armonizarea relaiilor interetnice .................................. 229 (Harmonization of inter-ethnical relations)

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3.10. Msuri de consolidare a imaginii Romniei pe plan extern ........................................................................ 230 (Measures to consolidate Romania's image on the external plan)

Capitolul 4. Evoluia economic a Romniei n perioada 2000-2014 ............................................................. 233 (Economical evolution of Romania during the period 2000-2014) 4.1. Evoluia Produsului Intern Brut ..................................... 234 (Evolution of the Gross Domestic Product) 4.2. Investiiile strine directe ............................................... 240 (Direct foreign investments) 4.3. Evoluia preurilor de consum ........................................ 242 (Evolution of the consumption prices) 4.4. Evoluia industriei i a preurilor de producie ............... 245 (Evolution of industry and production prices) 4.5. Evoluia agriculturii ....................................................... 246 (Evolution of agriculture) 4.6. Investiiile i construciile .............................................. 247 (Investments and constructions) 4.7. Serviciile ........................................................................ 250 (Services) 4.8. Comerul exterior ........................................................... 251 (Foreign trade) 4.9. Alte aspecte privind evoluia n perioada 2000-2014 ............................................................................. 256 (Other aspects regarding evolution during the period 2000-2014)

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Capitolul 5. Evoluia economic a rii n perioada 1990 - 2014 ........................................................................... 257 (Economic evolution of our country during the period 1990-2014) 5.1. Cadrul legislativ al reformei .......................................... 257 (Legal framework of the reform) 5.2. Evoluia economic n perioada 1990-2014 ................... 264 (Economic evolution during the period 1990-2014) 5.3. Reforma i privatizarea n agricultur ............................ 267 (Reform and privatization in agriculture) 5.4. Reforma i privatizarea n industrie ............................... 278 (Reform and privatization in industry) 5.5. Privatizarea n turism i servicii ..................................... 291 (Privatization in tourism and services)

Capitolul 6. Evoluia Produsului Intern Brut ................. 301 (Evolution of the Gross Domestic Product) 6.1. Evoluii comparative ale indicatorului PIB .................... 301 (Comparative evolutions of the GDP) 6.2. Nivelul Produsului Intern Brut n 2012 - 2013 .............. 303 (GDP level in 2012-2013) 6.3. Produsul Intern Brut are un trend oscilant n 2009-2013 ......................................................................... 304 (GDP has an oscillatory trend in 2009-2013)

Capitolul 7. Producia industrial stabilizat la un nivel redus .................................................................. 313 (Industrial production stabilized at a low level) 7.1. Aspecte generale ............................................................ 313 (General aspects) 7.2. Evoluia industriei n perioada 2001-2014 ..................... 316 (Industry evolution during the period 2001-2014)

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7.3. Evoluia industriei n 2010-2014 .................................... 318 (Industry evolution in 2010-2014) 7.4. Producia industrial pentru export ................................ 320 (Industrial production for export) 7.5. Producia industrial a nregistrat evoluii sinuoase ................................................................................. 326 (Industrial production recorded sinuous evolutions)

Capitolul 8. Evoluia activitii din agricultur ............... 329 (Evolution of activity in agriculture) 8.1. Prezentare general ........................................................ 329 (General presentation) 8.2. Evoluia produciei din sectorul vegetal ......................... 332 (Evolution of the production in the vegetal sector) 8.3. Evoluia poduciei din sectorul zootehnic ...................... 334 (Evolution of the production in the zootechnical sector) 8.4. Evoluie sinuoas n agricultur ..................................... 335 (Sinuous evolutions in agriculture) 8.5. Prghii neutilizate sau scpate de sub control ................ 337 (Unused or out-of-control leverages) 8.6. Unele direcii prioritare de aciune ................................. 342 (Some prioritary action directions)

Capitolul 9. Activitatea n domeniile construciilor i transporturilor ................................................................. 345 (Activity in the construction and transportation fields) 9.1. Aspecte generale ............................................................ 345 (General aspects) 9.2. Rezultatele din domeniul construciilor ......................... 346 (Results in the constructions field) 9.3. Evoluia activitii n transporturi .................................. 354 (Evolution of activity in transportation)

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Capitolul 10. Evoluia produciei de bunuri i servicii pentru populaie ................................................. 357 (Evolution of the production of goods and services for the population) 10.1. Aspecte generale .......................................................... 357 (General aspects) 10.2. Serviciile turistice n Romnia ..................................... 362 (Tourism services in Romania)

10.2.1. Aspecte generale ................................................... 362 (General aspects) 10.2.2. Programe speciale pentru dezvoltarea turismului .......................................................................... 371 (Special programs for the development of tourism)

10.3. Serviciile pentru populaie ........................................... 375 (Services for population) 10.4. Producerea i comercializarea bunurilor ...................... 382 (Production and trade of goods) 10.5. Servicii informatice pentru populaie ........................... 385 (IT services for population)

Capitolul 11. Indicele preurilor de consum al populaiei s-a temperat .................................................. 389 (The populations'consumption price index has tempered) 11.1. Consideraii generale .................................................... 389 (General considerations 11.2. Indicele preurilor de consum pentru produsele alimentare ............................................................. 393 (Consumption price index for food goods) 11.3. Indicele preurilor de consum la produse nealimentare ........................................................ 394 (Consumption price index for non-food goods) 11.4. Indicele preului de consum al serviciilor .................... 394 (Consumption price index for services)

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11.5. Ctigul salarial mediu nominal ................................... 394 (Nominal average salary gain)

Capitolul 12. Evoluia comerului internaional ............. 399 (Evolution of the international trade) 12.1. Cadrul general .............................................................. 399 (General framework) 12.2. Evoluia general a exporturilor-importurilor .............. 402 (General evolution of exports-imports) 12.3. Exporturile n 2014 ...................................................... 406 (Exports in 2014) 12.4. Importurile n 2014 ...................................................... 407 (Imports in 2014) 12.5. Structura geografic a importurilor i exporturilor ........................................................................ 409 (Geographical structure of imports and exports)

Capitolul 13. Investiiile de capital n Romnia .............. 415 (Capital investments in Romania) 13.1. Cadrul general .............................................................. 415 (General framework) 13.2. Detalii privind evoluia investiiilor ............................. 416 (Details regarding the evolution of investments) 13.3. Evoluii cu efect asupra investiiilor ............................ 419 (Evolutions with effect on investments) 13.4. Investiiile de capital strin .......................................... 423 (Foreign capital investments) 13.5. Investiiile de capital autohton ..................................... 428 (Indigenous capital investments) 13.6. Perspectiva investiiilor ................................................ 430 (Perspective of investments)

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Capitolul 14. Evoluia pieei financiare nebancar ......... 433 (Evolution of non-banking financial market) 14.1. Piaa de asigurri i evoluia acesteia ........................... 433 (Insurance market and its evolution)

14.1.1. Aspecte generale ................................................... 433 (General aspects) 14.1.2. Evoluia capitalului social al societilor de asigurare ....................................................................... 434 (Evolution of the social capital of insurance companies) 14.1.3. Evoluia primelor brute subscrise ......................... 437 (Evolution of the gross subscribed premiums) 14.1.5. Evoluia asigurrilor de locuine ........................... 443 (Evolution of home insurance)

14.2 Evoluia pieei de capital a Romniei ........................... 445 (Evolution of the Romanian capital market)

14.2.1. Principalele aspecte privind piaa de capital ......... 445 (Main aspects regarding the capital market) 14.2.2. Bursa de Valori Bucureti ..................................... 447 (Bucharest Stock Exchange) 14.2.3. Aspecte principale privind evoluia pieei RASDAQ ................................................................ 454 (General aspects regarding the evolution of the RASDAQ market) 14.2.4. Perspective privind dezvoltarea pieei de capital ................................................................. 456 (Perspectives regarding the development of the capital market)

14.3. Evoluia sistemului de pensii private din Romnia ...... 457 (Evolution of the private pensions system in Romania) 14.3.1. Tendine specifice n evoluia sistemului de pensii ............................................................................ 457 (Specific trends in the evolution of the pensions system) 14.3.2. Investiiile fondurilor de pensii private ................. 461 (Investments of private pension funds)

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14.3.4. Evoluia contribuiilor brute .................................. 465 (Evolution of gross contributions)

Capitolul 15. Evoluia resurselor umane .......................... 475 (Evolution of human resources) 15.1. Caracteristici generale .................................................. 475 (General characteristics) 15.2. Gradul de instruire a populaiei .................................... 476 (Training degree of the population) 15.3. Gradul de utilizare a timpului de lucru ........................ 477 (Use of working time degree) 15.4. Activiti atipice ........................................................... 479 (Atypical activities) 15.5. Activiti secundare ...................................................... 480 (Secondary activities) 15.6. Populaia inactiv ......................................................... 481 (Inactive population) 15.7. Populaia descurajat .................................................... 481 (Discouraged population) 15.8. Distribuia populaiei active pe regiuni ........................ 482 (Distribution of active population by regions)

Capitolul 16. omajul fenomen n alert ....................... 487 (Unemployment - phenomenon in alert) 16.1. Evoluii i tendine ....................................................... 487 (Evolutions and trends) 16.2. Structura omajului ...................................................... 489 (Structure of unemployment) 16.3. Evoluia omajului n profil teritorial ........................... 492 (Unemployment evolution in territorial profile) 16.4. Perspective pentru perioada urmtoare ........................ 493 (Perspectives for the next period)

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Capitolul 17. Situaia pensionarilor rmne dificil....... 495 (The situation of pensioners remains difficult) 17.1. Evoluia categoriei pensionari ...................................... 495 (Evolution of the pensioners category) 17.2. Evoluia nivelului pensiilor .......................................... 497 (Evolution of the level of pensions) 17.3. Pensionarii din sistemul asigurrilor sociale de stat .... 500 (Pensioners from the state social security system) 17.4. Evoluia pensiei suplimentare ...................................... 501 (Evolution of supplementary pension) 17.5. Pensiile n profil teritorial ............................................ 501 (Pensions in territorial profile)

Capitolul 18. Nivelul de trai al populaiei ........................ 505 (Living standard of the population) 18.1. Aspecte generale privind populaia .............................. 505 (General aspects regarding population) 18.2. Veniturile populaiei .................................................... 508 (Populations' incomes) 18.3. Evolutia cheltuielilor populaiei ................................... 516 (Evolution of populations'expenses) 18.4. Evoluia balanei venituri-cheltuieli ............................. 525 (Evolution of the income-expenses balance)

Capitolul 19. Evoluia monetar, plasamentele, resursele i execuia bugetar ............................................ 527 (Monetary evolution, placements, resources and budgetary execution) 19.1. Evoluia monetar, plasamente i resurse .................... 527 (Monetary evolution, placements and resources) 19.2. Situaia execuiei bugetare ........................................... 530 (Situation of the budgetary execution)

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19.3. Execuia bugetelor de stat i locale .............................. 533 (Execution of state and local budgets) 19.4. Datoria public ............................................................. 539 (Public debt)

Capitolul 20. Ratingul bazat pe riscul de ar ................. 543 (Rating based on country risk) 20.1. Consideraii generale .................................................... 543 (General considerations) 20.2. Riscurile ce se pot manifesta ........................................ 545 (Risks that can occur) 20.3. Clasificarea statelor lumii ............................................ 547 (Classification of world states) 20.4. Metodologie i criterii de evaluare a riscului ............... 548 (Methodology and criteria for risk valuation) 20.5. Ageniile de rating ........................................................ 550 (Rating agencies) 20.6. Firme de rating ............................................................. 554 (Rating companies) 20.7. Publicaii de rating ....................................................... 555 (Rating publications) 20.8. Ratingul Romniei ....................................................... 556 (Romania's Rating) 20.9. Evoluia ratingului Romniei ....................................... 562 (Evolution of Romania's rating)

Capitolul 21. Romnia are nevoie de integrare european eficient ............................................................ 567 (Romania needs an efficient integration in Europe) 21.1. Unele dificulti ale Romniei n absorbia Fondurilor Structurale i de Coeziune .................................. 567 (Some difficulties of Romania in the absorption of Structural and Cohesion Funds)

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21.2 Finanarea agriculturii, dezvoltrii rurale i pescuitului ......................................................................... 572 (Financing agriculture, rural development and fishing) 21.3 Elemente privind politica de coeziune a UE n perioada 2014-2020 .......................................................... 575 (Elements regarding the cohesion policy of the EU during the period 2014-2020) 21.4. Romnia pe drumul integrrii europene ....................... 585 (Romania on the road of European integration) 21.5. Obligaii i consecine ce decurg din calitatea de membru UE ...................................................................... 594 (Obligations and consequences derived from the quality of EU member) 21.6. Politici n domeniul rural ............................................. 607 (Policies in rural area) 21.7. Politici privind agricultura i industria ......................... 612 Policies regarding agriculture and industry) 21.8. Dispoziiile acquis-ului Schengen dup aderare .......... 619 (Dispositions of Schengen acquis subsequent to adhesion) 21.9. Prevederi cu aplicare permanent ................................ 627 (Provisions with permanent application) 21.10. Politica Uniunii Europene n domeniul concurenei ............................................................................ 645 (European Union policy in the field of competition) 21.11. Politici ale Uniunii Europene n domeniul agriculturii ......................................................... 648 (European Union policy in the field of agriculture) 21.12. Politici n domeniul transporturilor ............................ 650 (Policies in the field of transportation) 21.13. Politicile Uniunii Europene privind impozitarea ....... 653 (European Union policies regarding taxation)

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21.14. Politicile Uniunii Europene n domeniul energiei i mediului ............................................................... 656 (European Union policies in the field of energy and environment) 21.15. Politici privind controlul calitii apelor .................... 658 (Policies regarding the control of water quality) 21.16. Politici privind managementul general al deeurilor ........................................................................... 661 (Policies regarding the general management of waste) 21.17. Politici n domeniul polurii industriale, controlului i managementului riscului ................................................... 664 (Policies in the field of industrial pollution, risk management and control)

Bibliografie selectiv ........................................................... 671

Prefa

Lucrarea Romnia starea economic lansat n anul 1998 i are geneza n dorina autorului, de a aterne pe hrtie i a imortaliza gndirea proprie cu privire la evoluia social-economic a rii noastre. S-au scurs 16 ani, concretizai n 16 volume n care prin analiz bazat pe datele oficiale reale i capacitatea de interpretare, am aternut pe hrtie numai ceea ce am considerat c este semnificativ i relevant cu privire la evoluia social-economic a Romniei. Drumul nu a fost uor, de multe ori, m-a bntuit gndul c ar fi bine s fie ultimul volum adus pe pia. tiu c lucrarea a fost primit pe pia n cei aisprezece ani de pn acum, cu interes. Mediul academic, de cercetare sau alte persoane, cu nalt pregtire economic, mi-au transmis gnduri bune, acestea fiind ncurajatoare i vinovatede faptul c nu am oprit munca, concretizat, an de an, ntr-un nou volum. Acum apare volumul cu numrul aptesprezece, adus la zi, dup mult trud i chibzuin.

Prin competena Bibliotecii Naional a Romniei, lucrrile publicate pn n prezent se afl n biblioteci de renume mondial, majoritatea asociate marilor universiti ale lumii. Dau numai cteva exemple, din cele, n care aceste volume au fost primite, sper cu interes: Bayerische Staatsbibliothek Munchen Germania, Harvard College Library SUA, Stanford University Library SUA, Cornell University Library Ithaca USA, Indiana University Bloomington SUA, The British Library London Marea Britanie, University of Chicago Library Chicago SUA, University of Pittsburgh SUA, Hathitrust Digital Library Ann Arbor SUA, Bibliotheque et Archives Nationales du Quebec Montreal Canada, University of Oxford Oxford Marea Britanie, University of Illinois Urbana SUA, Library of Congress Washington SUA, sau University of California Los Angeles SUA.

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De asemenea, un numr important de exemplare din aceast lucrare, ce apare anual, st la dispoziia strinilor aflai oficial n Romnia sau al unor instituii internaionale care, probabil, pe lng punctele de vedere exprimate de autoritile romne cu privire la situaia economic i social a rii noastre la un moment dat, se apleac i asupra punctului de vedere exprimat de o persoan, zic eu, autorizat din acest domeniu. Am ajuns la a aptesprezecea apariie n care am ncercat s desluesc aspectele eseniale ce fac obiectul studiului ntr-un context de mare turbulen pentru Romnia. Afirm aceasta, gndindu-m n primul rnd la mersul greu al rii prin devastatoarea criz. Precum venirea iernii, recesiunea economic ce a ncolit nc din anul 2006, ne-a gsit, ca ntotdeauna nepregtii. i nici nu avea cum s fie altfel atta timp ct din 1990 i pn astzi, n proporii diferite, cei ce au asigurat managementul macroeconomic naional au acionat, la nceput cred fr tiin, apoi din orientri partizane care s-au concretizat, iar n cele din urm, a aprecia, fr discernmnt i spirit naional.

n treact, dei ar aprea ca o repetare, numai cteva exemple, validate de nemilosul timp, ne edific pe deplin asupra aprecierii. Astfel, n 1990, prin scoaterea prilor sociale deinute de salariaii din vechiul regim din sfera investiiilor (producia) i aducerea pentru consum, a declanat procesul inflaionist (este lesne de ce i apreciez c nu se impune s fac aici o pledoarie, tema fiind abordat n acest volum). Este adevrat c i n vechiul sistem superetatizat, inflaia aciona n mod mascat (pasiv), dar n 1990 s-a declanat un fenomen care a ofilit fr posibilitate de revenire ntreaga economie naional. Cu acei bani se putea face i altceva, de pild s se nceap, fie i limitat, primul pas pe linia privatizrii, adic transformarea prilor sociale n aciuni reale. Nu s-a vrut, nu s-a putut sau s-a urmrit doar populismul i amgirea bietului romn. A urmat al doilea fenomen nociv i pentru o economie i societate aezat, dar pentru Romnia care pescuia n ape tulburi i adnci i anume declanarea omajului. n mod cert, economia Romniei avea un omaj latent dar acesta nu trebuia scos n strad ci absorbit cu pricepere. Cum? Prin a folosi resursele naturale, financiare i umane ale rii, adic cei trei factori determinani n dezvoltarea economic,

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prin proces de reconversie primar a forei de munc i, s zicem, declanarea unui amplu proces de dezvoltare a infrastructurii naionale, care st i astzi pe ultimul loc din Europa. Ce ne lipsea atunci cnd toate materiile i materialele se aflau nc n proprietatea statului i era necesar doar ca disponibilizaii din minerit i alte sectoare s fie transferai la Regia Naional a Drumurilor? Un asemenea pas nseamn scparea de sub efectul negativ al omajului, scutirea de finanare a unui flagel social agresiv, meninerea a numeroase ntreprinderi pe atunci, societi comerciale i Regii Autonome acum (ciment, bitum, asfalt, produse lemnoase, fier beton, maini i utilaje de profil i multe altele), ntr-un ritm susinut de activitate, cu efect n eficiena economico-financiar n toate cazurile. Dup 25 de ani, astzi Romnia ar fi avut o infrastructur rutier fr cusur, dorit i utilizat de ntreaga Europ. Acum cei ce se ndreapt ctre Estul Europei se cam codesc s foloseasc traseul de drumuri fr poduri romnesc. i astzi un program naional care s cuprind msuri proactive de dezvoltare a infrastructurii este nc o soluie salvatoare. Marii economiti consider c ntr-o perioad de criz ca cea de acum, rile mai slab dezvoltate, cum este Romnia, pot valorifica situaia pentru a iei din starea precar a unor domenii. n acest volum vei gsi exerciiul unei asemenea strategii. Dar se pare c ne cantonm n a dezvolta infrastructura numai prin absorbia de fonduri europene (capital la care proiectele antamate sunt nesemnificative i pe aceast cale se pierd drepturile pe care calitatea de membru al Uniunii Europene l ofer) i la preuri incredibile i greu de ntlnit prin alt ar european. A urmat decretarea industriei romneti ca o grmad de fiare vechi. Ce a urmat? Grmada de fiare vechi a i ruginit i prin procesul de privatizare, mai bine zis de nstrinare la orice pre nechibzuit (poate aductor de comisioane n puine buzunare) s-a evaporat toat industria, fr a se fi pus ceva construit n loc. Au disprut toate ntreprinderile romneti la preuri de nimic. S-au dus pe apa smbetei marile ntreprinderi (Camioane Braov, Tractorul Braov, Semntoarea, Timpuri Noi, 23August, combinatele siderurgice, combinatele petrochimice, Rulmentul Braov, fabricile de mobil etc) iar altele, cum este cazul OLTCHIM, se afl n

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dificultate i acum ne uitm c, la masa cooperrii europene, nu avem cu ce participa deoarece nu ne-a mai rmas o ct de mic specializare.

n domeniul turismului s-a practicat degradarea prin concesiune i nu vnzarea real de aciuni. Ulterior, un anume ministru, a pclit o ar ntreag cu prtii, telescaune, sli de sport i gondole care nu nlocuiesc frumuseea peisajului natural ce trebuia conservat i dezvoltat. Delta Dunrii a ajuns i ea de plns pentru cei ce i-au cunoscut adevrata valoare de patrimoniu naional. Agricultura, n toat structura i complexitatea sa, a devenit o mare povar pentru ranul (acum fermierul romn pauper). S-a distrus sistemele naionale de irigaii i cultur prin asolamente, iar chimizarea i mecanizarea se fac ntmpltor. Ne-am ntors la plugul tras de boi i ne uitm numai spre cer cu rugciunea n gnd la Cel de Sus. Acesta mai i d dar nu bag nimnui n sn. Anul 2014 este cel care va face iarna foarte grea pentru locuitorii satelor. Dei a fost un an agricol bun, costurile tot nu se pot recupera i, de aceea, srcia se aterne i mai stranic. Pdurile au fost defriate i exploatate nemilos. S-au distrus sute de mii de hecatre mpdurite, care nemaifiind au ntors clima pe dos i nc ne mai ntrebm de ce oare? Abia acum ies la iveal msurile frdelegi care au devastat potenialul economic al rii. Toate acestea au efect asupra nivelului de trai, al calitii vieii populaiei din Romnia. ntreaga evoluie social-economic ne reliefeaz o cdere fr puterea de a fi oprit. Acum, filozofm cu ali termeni (datorie public, datorie extern, arierate, taxe i impozite, accesarea fondurilor europene, rectificri bugetare) toate puse n schema de subzisten fr capacitate de dezvoltare. S fim serioi i mcar sinceri s nelegem c cei ce ne ademenesc, pe unii, nu se gndesc dect la interesele lor nu i la binefacere pentru tot romnul. Secretul st tot n resursele naionale, cte au mai ramas, n conservarea avuiei naionale i n capacitatea creatoare a romnilor. Este primul pilon care d ncredere, fie i ntr-o evoluie cu pai mruni. Atenie la cele cteva resurse naionale, aparent nesemnificative, dar de o valoare uria n realitate, care au mai rmas. Scpai-le din ghearele celor ce le vor privatizate (vndute) pe nimic, pentru interese meschine, individuale sau de

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grup, precum ntreaga industrie i bogiile naionale ale Romniei. Ne uitm, ascultm, contemplm i, deoarece nu nelegem nimic, rmnem doar stupefiai cu ntrebri ce vor rmne venic retorice. Am expus cteva considerente, pentru a se nelege ce se gsete n acest al aisprezecelea volum. Toate cele de mai sus izvorsc chiar aa, dar n mod gradat pentru a nu-l nfiora pe cititor, din datele supuse analizei. Volumele de pn acum, n conexiunea lor, exprim evoluia continu, bun sau rea, a economiei rii noastre. Chiar dac acum este tratat cu o atenie mai redus, mai ales de cei ce se pot identifica a fi fptuitorii nerealizrilor, cu timpul aceste studii vor fi de mare interes nu numai n New York, Munchen, Londra, Quebec, Oxford, Illinois, Chicago, Harvard, Stanford, Pittsburgh etc, ci i n Romnia, cnd se va dori a se nelege ce s-a ntmplat de alunecm n mod continuu ntr-o vale fr albie. Iat ce am gndit c ar fi util s pun n aceast prefa, nu pentru a strni un interes suplimentar, ci pentru a prefigura ce rezult din analiza bazat pe date certe. Cei care vor identifica n cuprinsul crii o structurare i pe tronsoane de timp vor nelege c, fr a m exprima explicit, i las cititorului puterea de a mpri responsabilitile n mod diferit, tuturor celor ce au asigurat managementul economiei naionale. Am ndrznit s pun n faa cititorului aceast prefa plecnd de la faptul c se mplinesc aisprezece ani de studiu i munc, n care m-am ferit s fac etichetri dar nu am ocolit adevrul, de cele mai multe ori, crud al evoluiei Romniei. Nu cu timiditate, ci cu atenie, am sugerat ceea ce trebuia sau trebuie fcut pentru a ntoarce cursul devastator al evoluiei social-economice. Cred c cele aptesprezece volume, inclusiv acesta, pe care le-am produs i dat pe pia, vor fi prob atunci cnd istoria, dac altcineva nu se ncumet, va judeca de ce am evoluat astfel i de ce am ajuns aici!

Cititorii, singurii beneficiari i analiti ai scrierilor mele, pot emite orice ipotez, oricare dintre acestea fiind folositoare pentru continuarea ciclului de studii n viitor.

15 noiembrie 2014

Autorul

Preface

Romania the economic situation is a work launched in 1998 and has its genesis in the authors desire, to lay on the paper and immortalize his own thinking concerning the social and economic evolution of our country. There are 16 years that elapsed, materialized in 16 volumes in which, through analysis based on real official data and the capacity to interpret the facts, I have write down whatever I thought as being significant and relevant as regards the Romania social and economic evolution only. The way proved to be not easy at all, so that there were many times when I was haunted by the thought that maybe it would have been better to consider a certain volume as the last one launched on the market. I know that this work has been acknowledged on the market over the sixteen years so far, with interest. The academic and research area, or other people, highly trained in economics, have sent their good thoughts, that were encouraging and guilty of the fact that I havent stoped working, summarizeed, year after year, in a new volume. Now appears the volume with the number seventeen, brought up to date, after much hard work and discretion.

By the competence of the National Library of Romania, the works published up to date are to be found in libraries of worldwide fame, most of them associated to the big universities of the world. Here I take the liberty of giving few examples only, out of those where these volumes have been received, I hope with interest: Bayerische Staatsbibliothek Munchen Germany, Harvard College Library USA, Stanford University Library USA, Cornell University Library Ithaca USA, Indiana University Bloomington USA, The British Library London Great Britain, University of Chicago Library Chicago USA, University of Pittsburgh USA, Hathitrust Digital Library Ann Arbor USA, Bibliotheque et Archives Nationales du Quebec Montreal Canada, University of Oxford Oxford Great

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Britain, University of Illinois Urbana USA, Library of Congress Washington USA, or University of California Los Angeles USA.

Meantime, a significant number of copies of this work, which appears yearly, is kept at the disposal of the foreigners officially assigned in Romania or at the disposal of certain international institutions that, probably, besides the points of view expressed by the Romanian authorities as regards the social and economic situation of our country at a certain moment, would consider as well the point of view expressed, I say, by an authorized person in the field. I reached the seventeenth edition, where I tried to perceive the essential aspects of the research object, in the context of a great turbulence for Romania. I assert this thinking, first, at the clumsy course of the country through the devastating crisis. Similar to the winter arrival, the economic recession that arouse since the year 2006, found us, as always, unprepared. It actually could not be otherwise, as much as from 1990 up to date, at different proportions, those entrusted with the national macroeconomic management have acted I think without knowledge, at the beginning, and, then partisan orientations put in practice, if I may say, without discernment and national spirit.

In passing by, even if it may seem like a repetition, a few examples only, which, acknowledged by the pitiless time, are enlightening us on the allegation. Thus, in 1990, by taking the social parts held by the employees in the previous regime out of the investment (production) sphere and bringing them into the consumption, the inflationist process has been launched (easily to see why and I consider that it is no place for a pleading, as the theme is approached by this volume). It is true that the inflation acted in the old super-nationalized regime as well, in a hidden (passive) manner but in 1990 we are talking about a launching of a phenomenon that faded the entire national economy, without no way to come back. That money could have been used for doing something else, for instance, beginning, either limited, the first step on the privatization process, namely transforming the social parts in real equities. This was not wanted, not possible

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or there was only the populism and the delusion of the poor Romanian, which counted. The second phenomenon, noxious for an economy and society well established as well, not to mention Romania, which was fishing in troubled and deep waters, followed, namely the launching of the unemployment. Certainly, Romania had a dormant unemployment but this one should not have been drawn out in the street but absorbed with ability. How? By using the natural, financial and human resources of the country, namely the three determinant factors of the economic development, by a process of primary reconversion of the labor force and, lets say, by launching of an ample process of developing the national infrastructure that yet today occupies the last place in Europe. What were we missing by the time when all the raw resources and materials belonged still to the state ownership and it was only necessary that discharger labor force from the mining and other sectors is transferred to the National Roads Administration? Such a step means the salvation from the negative effect of the unemployment, exemption from the financing an aggressive social scourge, maintaining a large number of enterprises then, commercial companies and Autonomous Administrations now (cement, bitumen, asphalt, wooden products, reinforcing iron, machinery and equipments of profile and many others), with a sustained rhythm of activity and effects in the economic and financial efficiency in all the situations.

After 25 years, Romania would have today a perfect road infrastructure, as desired and utilized by the entire Europe. Presently, those driving towards the East Europe are somehow reluctant to use the Romanian roads without bridges direction. Still today, a national program including pro-active steps for the infrastructure development is yet a saving solution. The great economists consider that during a period of crisis, as it is presently the case, the less developed countries such as Romania is, can valorize the situation in order to get out from the precarious situation of certain fields. But it seems that we keep on sticking with the development of the infrastructure through the

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absorption of European funds only (chapter where the approached projects are insignificant and therefore the rights offered by the quality of European Union member are lost) and at prices incredible and hardly to meet in other European country.

It has been established that the Romanian industry is a cluster of scrap What followed? The cluster of scrap gets rusty and through the privatization process, better said the process of transferring at any unreasonable price (perhaps bearing commissions to the benefit of a number of pockets) the whole industry evaporated without being replaced with something else. All the Romanian enterprises have disappeared against prices of nothing. Lost are the huge enterprises (Camioane Braov, Tractorul Braov, Semntoarea, Timpuri Noi, 23August, the metallurgical and petrochemical aggregated works, furniture works etc.), and others like OLTCHIM are in difficulty and now we see that, at the table of the European co-operation, we have nothing to participate with since we lost the smallest specialization whatsoever.

In the tourism field, instead of a real sale of equities, the degradation through means of concession applied. Later on, a certain minister played a whole country the trick of tracks, tele- chairs, sport halls and gondolas that do not replace the beauty of the natural landscape, which should have been preserved and developed. The Danube Delta became a vale of tears for those who knew its real value as national patrimony. The agriculture, with its entire structure and complexity, became a hard burden for the farmer (presently the Romanian pauperized farmer). The irrigations system has been destroyed, and the culture through crop rotations, and the chemification and mechanization is randomly applied. We went back to the plough drawn by ox and keep on looking up to the sky with prayers in mind to the Lord Almighty. It is true that he uses to give but certainly does not cram in. The year 2014 is the one that will make a difficult winter for the villages inhabitants. Even if it has been a god agricultural year, the costs cant be recovered, and thats why, the poverty is growing more and more pregnant. The forests have

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been cleared up and pitiless exploited. Hundreds of thousands hectares of forests have been destroyed that turned the clime upside down while we keep on asking ourselves, why? Nouw come into view the great unlawful deeds that devastated the countrys forestry potential. All these facts have an impact on the live standard and the life quality of The Romania population. The entire social and economic evolution is underlining a collapse impossible to stop.

Nowadays we keep on philosophizing in other terms (public debt, foreign debt, arrears, taxes and duties, accessing European funds, budgetary rectifications) all of them placed into the subsistence scheme, without development capacity.

Lets be serious and at least sincere to understand that those who tempt some of us are not considering the advantages for every Romanian people but their own interests. The secret keeps on consisting of the national resources, as much as they remained, of the preservation of the national wealth and of the creative capability of the Romanians. This is the first pillar giving trust, even if within a small steps evolution.

A particular attention should be paid to the few national resources, apparently insignificant, but of a huge value in fact, which remained. Save them from the claws of those looking for their privatization (sale) for nothing, for the benefit of mean, individual or groups interests, similar to what happened to the entire industry and the national wealth of Romania.

We listen, hear, beheld and, because we do not understand anything, we are astonished with questions that will remain forever rhetoric.

I have submitted a number of reasons in order to let it be understood what the reader should expect to find out within this sixteenth volume. All above subjects are arising likewise from the analyzed data but gradually, in order not to frighten the reader.

The works published so far are expressing by their connection, the continuous good or bad evolution of our country economy. Even if now there is a lesser attention paid to them, mainly by those who can be identified as the makers of the

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failures, in time, these studies will be of great interest, not only in New York, Munchen, London, Quebec, Oxford, Illinois, Chicago, Harvard, Stanford, Pittsburgh etc, but in Romania as well, by the time people will want to understand what happened actually to make us slip continuously into a valley without bottom. This is what I thought as being useful to emphasize by this introduction with the purpose not to incite an additional interest but to prefigure the outcomes of an analysis based on doubtless data. Those who will identify in the book content a certain structure as well as time sequences will understand that, without an explicit statement, I leave the reader the power to share responsibilities in a different way, with all of those who have been empowered with the management of the national economy. I dared to submit this introduction to the reader, starting from the fact that there are sixteen years of research and work that passed, during which I avoided to put labels however without ignoring the, mostly cruel, truth of the evolution in Romania.

Not with timidity but with attention and concern, I have suggested what should have been or must be done in order to turn the devastating course of the social and economic evolution.

I do believe that the seventeen volumes, including this one, which I produced and put on the market, will be an evidence when the history, if nobody else dares, will judge why we have evaluate this way and why we reached this situation!

The readers, the only beneficiaries and analysts of my works, may issue any hypothesis, anyone being useful for the continuation of the studies cycle in the future.

The author

November 15th, 2014

Introducere

Romnia 2014. Starea economic pe calea redresrii este a aptesprezecea apariie editorial anual, n seria publicat de Editura Economic ncepnd cu anul 1998. Lucrarea analizeaz evoluia situaiei economice a Romniei pn n iunie 2014, care s-a depreciat pe fondul adncirii i mai ales a efectelor crizei economico-financiare pe plan mondial, eu efecte devastatoare i n ara noastr. Am sugerat foarte clar, nc din 2006, iminenta atingere violent a economiei Romniei de efectele crizei mondiale, neexistnd nici o posibilitate de evitare i nici mcar de diminuare. Din nefericire pentru starea economiei romneti, criza s-a suprapus pe o situaie intern particular de instabilitate politic i moral, care a bulversat ntreaga evoluie social-economic. Din anul 2008, cnd au aprut primii germeni de intrare a Romniei n recesiune economic, am ncercat, fr succes, s identific un plan de msuri anticriz, am urmrit s cuantific efectele programelor de guvernare, bazate pe msuri pro-active, dar nu m-am dumirit, ci am devenit i mai sceptic n ceea ce privete posibilitatea de identificare a unei strategii romneti de stopare a efectelor foarte violente ale crizei i de ieire din acest marasm, care macin fr pauze economia Romniei, una i aa marcat de adncirea dezechilibrelor macroeconomice. Dup alegerile din decembrie 2012 identificm un program incipient care pare realist i care poate fi transpus n pratic. Aceast apreciere avea n vedere costul unei campanii prezideniale fr precedent, n care, pentru atingerea scopului urmrit, s-au legiferat, fr fundament economico-financiar, creteri de pensii i salarii, oprindu-se aproape total investiiile. Aceast nou stare de lucruri a bulversat scena politic i a propulsat stilul de guvernare fr program i ajustare bugetar dup interese mrunte i nu dup nevoia de a stopa, pe ct posibil, efectele crizei. Perioada 2009-2012 a avut ca trstur principal, n strategia economico-financiar, confuzia aparent suprapus intereselor ascunse de grup. Personal, nu am ncetat s militez pentru nevoia de a adopta msuri proactive,

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care cu siguran, ne vor scoate din criz sau mcar vor atenua efectele dezastruoase ale crizei globale. n ultimele volume ale lucrrii, publicate n 2012 i 2013, chiar am simulat un numr de msuri proactive, ncercnd, pe analiza prognozat, s reliefez unele efecte economico-sociale pentru Romnia. Pentru a da cursivitate i a asigura o mai rapid corelare a evoluiei social-economice a Romniei n timp, voi relua i n acest studiu unele aspecte pe care le apreciez a fi de importan pentru viitorul rii. Strategia intern actual este supervizat de organismele financiare care urmresc respectarea acordurilor convenite. Am reinut, din cele expuse n mod repetat, de ctre reprezentanii Fondului Monetar Internaional c Romnia are de rezolvat dou probleme, calitativ-cantitative. Astfel, este vorba de infrastructura de calitate, implicnd aici tot ceea ce intr n aceast categorie. De asemenea, calitatea forei de munc, cea care trebuie s devin competitiv pe plan european i mai larg, internaional, trebuie s fie o prioritate absolut. Cele dou elemente, n evoluie cantitativ-calitativ, ar avea ca efect accesarea fondurilor europene, pe care le-am ignorat un timp din incapacitate de aciune sau din lips de chibzuin la perspectiva real de a atrage investiii strine directe. Reprezentantul FMI i, aa gndesc i ali reprezentani strini cu valene i cunotine economico-financiare, a mai semnalat c legislaia din Romnia nu este coerent i stabil i pe acest fond exist reinere din partea marilor investitori strini. Am relatat aceste aspecte pentru a ne clarifica asupra faptului c, problemele Romniei sunt cunoscute i se discut la nivelurile care trebuie s fie responsabile i pe acest fond apare i mai mare nedumerirea cu privire la lipsa de msuri energice, care s-au manifestat n perioada pn n 2012. Nu numai eu, ci i ali analiti economici de talie mondial apreciaz c perioada de criz economico-financiar actual ar fi putut s fie folosit de rile cu un nivel de dezvoltare mai redus, deci i Romnia, pentru a-i rezolva o serie de aspecte de dezvoltare. Aa de pild, la costuri reduse, cu accesare de fonduri europene i cu antreprenoriat strin, dobndit prin licitaii publice internaionale, am fi reuit foarte mult n infrastructura rutier, de exemplu. Privatizarea, n orice condiii, a ntreprinderilor i serviciilor de stat

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a nsemnat pgubirea statului i nu eficientizarea domeniilor n cauz. n aceast ordine de idei sunt multe de spus i cititorul va gsi referine consistente n aceast lucrare. Cartea va arta sec derapajele Romniei i nu va urmri s stabileasc motivele, ci va fi un semnal de alarm perpetuu, n sperana c va detepta i sensibiliza pe cei care poart rspunderea fa de situaia n care s-a ajuns. Fr convingere ferm, bazat pe starea intern dar argumentnd prin dezvoltarea crizei n rile unde s-a declanat, pot afirma c Romnia va mai sta sub efectul profund al crizei, dup care poate ncepe o uoar inversare a trendului evoluiei. Aceasta va depinde i de ncheierea execuiei bugetare pe 2013, coerena proieciei bugetare pentru 2014-2015 i mai ales aducerea puterilor statului n albia corelaional necesar i benefic. Pe acest fond, innd seama i de o serie de msuri ntprerinse n 2012-2013, majoritate cu efect social, pot afirma c Romnia s-a angajat pe o cale sigur de redresare economic.

n volumul anterior am prognozat posibilitatea pentru 2012, creznd c un minimum de msuri pro-active, care s conduc i la obinerea de venituri (crearea de locuri de munc, colectare veniturilor, combaterea corupiei, aducerea unui procent ridicat al economiei nevzute la suprafa), se vor lua. Nu am intuit c practica ce se va statornici va fi bisturiulpentru chirurgia neestetic a economiei (am n vedere bugetul consolidat). Cele cteva msuri reparatorii ntreprinse dup mai 2012, dei nu sunt suficiente i solide, dau perspectiva unor evoluii n uoar cretere n anii ce vin.

Romnia va avea nevoie de nc civa ani pentru a ajunge, n termeni reali, la nivelul i rezultatele economice obinute n decembrie 2007. O analiz pe aceast tem este uor de efectuat, lund n calcul reducerea creterii economice, an de an, dup 2007, nregistrnd n iunie 2013 aproape cca. -16% (termeni nominali) i alte -12/-13%, reduceri n termeni reali, dup deflatare. Aadar, i pe un fond de temperare a cderii economice i meninere a echilibrelor macroeconomice, nsntoirea nu se va realiza numai prin inversarea trendului, ci i prin aplicarea unei strategii viguroase, care s cuprind msuri complexe i de substan.

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n aprecierea de mai sus nu am luat n calcul i efectele deosebit de grave, ce se pot revrsa asupra situaiei financiar-economice, ca urmare a evoluiilor din Uniunea European, n special n rile din zona euro, sau pe plan mai larg, mondial. Grecia, Italia, Portugalia, Spania, Irlanda au mari dificulti financiare, care, nestpnite, pot genera efecte grave asupra monedei euro. Fiind n vecintatea sau n uniunea cu rile menionate, trebuie s manifestm atenia cuvenit riscurilor de a intra n vrtejul nemilos al efectelor crizei economico-financiare.

Uoara stabilizare a economiilor din rile menionate poate constitui momentul trecerii la relansarea treptat a economiei rilor comunitare.

Lucrarea consfinete o munc asidu, de aptesprezece ani a autorului, care a rmas ferm i credincios spiritului de a se limita la analiza macroeconomic complex, indicnd fr rezerve paii ezitani n procesul post-aderare, care i-a permis s spun de ce, i de multe ori, cum ar trebui procedat pentru a iei din fundtura n care ne-a adus guvernarea fr obiective certe n perioad de criz de pn n 2012 i a fi, mcar n perspectiv, un pic mai bine pentru noi toi.

Cartea apare la peste atee ani distan dup consfinirea aderrii la Uniunea European i evideniaz modul neconvingtor n care Romnia a valorificat elementele pozitive pe care le ofer noua poziie de ar comunitar, dar i dificultile pe care le va ntmpina pentru a trece de hiul alinierii i aplicrii n practic a noilor standarde.

Accesarea fondurilor comunitare nerambursabile s-a fcut ntr-un procent extrem de redus. n acest context, dac vom compara contribuia Romniei la formarea fondurilor comunitare europene cu sumele totale accesate de ara noastr, vom ajunge la nedoritul paradox constatnd c suntem ar contributoare i nu beneficiar. n anul 2014 se prefigureaz accesarea fondurilor comunitare n proporie de peste 25-30%, ceea ce nseamn un plus semnificativ fa de perioadele anterioare, dar nc puin din ceea ce ni s-a alocat.

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mprumuturile realizate n 2010 de la Fondul Monetar Internaional, Banca Mondial i Uniunea European nefiind direcionate ctre investiii i stimularea relansrii economice vor reprezenta o constrngere pentru Romnia. Din 2012, a nceput i rambursarea cotelor din mprumut convenite cu creditorii i efectele se vor resimi.

Evoluia oscilant a PIB n perioada 2010-2013, deficitul bugetar alarmant, galopul ratei inflaiei, omajului, scderea numrului personalului angajat, meninerea numrului pensionarilor la cote ridicate, sporirea datoriei externe, deficitul balanei schimburilor comerciale externe, colectarea deficitar a veniturilor bugetare, virulena economiei neobservate, iat tot attea explicaiipentru erodarea nivelului de trai i de argumente pentru un program concret de redresare economic. n 2014 un buchet de msuri cu caracter social, au fost operate i implementate, fiind un element stimulator pentru perioada urmtoare.

Toate aceste aspecte sunt abordate i evideniate prin cifre ntre coperile acestei lucrri.

Ediiile anterioare au inclus un amplu capitol, acum ajustat, dedicat cerinelor aderrii i, apoi, ale programului de integrare, subliniind nc de atunci c drumul va fi dificil i anevoios. Rmnem cu ochii pe ceea ce se va ntmpla i vom compara ceea ce se realizeaz efectiv cu ceea ce autorul a prezis cu muli ani n urm.

Apariia acestei noi lucrri este influenat i de neclaritatea politic ce caracterizeaz situaia intern din Romnia. Nu trebuie s fi un prea fin profet pentru a sugera c va fi o perioad de mari chinuri din care, cu greu, se vor nate realizri certe, rmnnd s ne ameim cu iluzii....

Lucrarea de fa i propune - i, personal, cred c reuete s fac o analiz detaliat complet, dar i sectorial, a evoluiei economice n perioada ianuarie 2013 - iunie 2014 i n comparaie cu alte perioade de timp semnificative, fr a emite aprecieri categorice, acestea rmnnd la latitudinea i libertatea de interpretare a cititorului.

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Acest al aptesprezecelea volum nu putea s nu fac analiza comparat, tridimensional, respectiv: n primul rnd, situaia economico-social actual comparativ cu cea a defunctului sistem; analiza i interpretarea datelor pe ntregul interval de timp, din 1990 pn n prezent; aprecierea rezultatelor din perioada ianuarie 2013- iunie 2014.

Mai nti, am ncercat s rspund la o ntrebare, care nu este deloc retoric, i anume: de ce, n acest volum, am analizat o perioad mai larg de timp?

Rspunsul este complex dar, sintetizat, ar fi dat de: starea de instabilitate politic dinamic, ce a

caracterizat ntreaga perioad analizat, dat de certitudinea de majoritate parlamentar a coaliiei de la guvernare, fond pe care este greu de identificat o msur reuit a opoziiei;

imposibilitatea identificrii unui program complex de msuri anticriz pe termen scurt, mediu i lung care s cuprind msuri pro-active, pe care givernele care s-au succedat s le promoveze n continuare

dificultatea i imposibilitatea de clarificare a efectelor crizei financiare, sugerat nc din anul 2006 (vezi volumele anterioare) asupra complexului european, n general, i a Romniei n mod particular;

lipsa de argumente n a explica contradicia dintre rezultatele economice bune obinute n 2007-2008, cnd SUA se confrunta deja cu efectele crizei economico-financiare i dezastrul n care s-a czut dup ianuarie 2009 i pn n 2014 (din 2013 s-a declanat un trend de nviorare). Nu putem explica aceast situaie numai prin funcionarea economiei de pia n perioada de criz , atta timp ct SUA au readus n discuie rolul statului intervenionist (m refer la naionalizarea n domeniul bancar pentru a frna, cel puin, criza financiar) i au explicat pericolul creterii masei monetare.

Pornind de la aceast analiz, autorul a dorit s desprind i s sugereze tendina de evoluie viitoare a sistemului social-economic din Romnia.

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n capitolele lucrrii, m-am aplecat asupra analizei punnd n antitez, pe de o parte, rezultatele din domeniul activitii economice i sociale practice, comparativ cu perioadele anterioare dar i, pe de alt parte, analizei comparative a rezultatelor n domeniul legislativ, n ceea ce privete armonizarea i punerea ulterioar n practic a legislaiei rii noastre. La acest punct, cred c nu este nici o exagerare dac voi opinia c rolul puterii legislative s-a redus la limite periculoase. Pe acest fond s-a spulberat credibilitatea, mai ales extern, cu efect negativ asupra capitalurilor strine care, neavnd culoare i miros ci numai criterii de profitabilitate, ocolesc Romnia.

Cititorul va putea gsi n aceast carte o abunden de date care, abstractiznd uneori tonul sau adjectivarea unora dintre aprecieri, se vor constitui ntr-un bun ndrumar pentru a nelege cum a evoluat economia Romniei n ntregul su (sau principalele domenii n parte), din 1990 pn astzi.

Mi-am propus i cred c, mcar parial, am reuit ca datele pe care le-am utilizat au fost corect analizate i interpretate iar concluziile ce se desprind s aib semnificaia lor rece, care deriv din coninutul real.

Poate c atunci cnd lucrarea va fi n mna celor care doresc s obin un anume rspuns la ntrebrile globale sau dintr-un anumit domeniu, unii indicatori s fi suferit uoare modificri n procesul de definitivare a acestora, ca urmare a activitii desfurat de Institutul Naional de Statistic.

Precizez c micile abateri, ntr-un sens sau altul, ale unor indicatori nu vor fi eseniale n ceea ce privete concluziile care s-au desprins sau la care s-ar putea ajunge.

Graba de a pune mpreun datele, unele uor incomplete dar cu coninut de informaie precis, acum cnd cititorului avizat i va fi oricum mai dificil s le acceseze, este determinat de convingerea c este mai bine ca aceste date, care conduc la aceleai concluzii, s fie disponibile acum dect mai trziu, cnd vor fi suficient de complete dar, n egal msur, suficient de bine cunoscute, frmntate i deja cu semnificaia de date istorice.

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ncerc, prin aceste precizri, s evideniez nu neaprat valoarea lucrrii ci, mai ales, dorina autorului de a sintetiza din datele care au existat n momentul analizei i de a interpreta, pe un tronson suficient de lung de timp, modul n care au evoluat anumii indicatori, i pe aceast baz a realitilor din Romnia.

Cred c acelora care vor interpreta aceste date le va fi mai uor dac n prealabil au citit sau studiat i precedentele cincisprezece ediii ale lucrrii sau a unora dintre acestea. Spun aceasta deoarece n dezbaterea pe care o propune autorul a cutat, pe de o parte, s adune datele pe care le-a considerat reprezentative pentru 2013 i 2014 i, n comparaie cu anii anteriori, concomitent cu eforul de a urmri simplificarea, pe ct posibil, a acestora aa nct lucrarea s devin accesibil unui numr larg de persoane.

Lucrarea este structurat pe 21 capitole (la aceste capitole se adaug o sintez n limba englez), din care sper s rezulte i trendul evoluiei economice viitoare pentru c, pur i simplu, acesta nu exist cuprinse ntr-un program. Primul capitol se axeaz pe analiza modului n care au fost atacate i, n principiu, soluionate, prioritile din programul de guvernare pentru perioada 2013-2014, pe fondul evoluiilor pe care le-a imprimat criza economico-financiar.

n capitolul al doilea se prezint evoluia economiei naionale n perioada cuprins ntre ianuarie 1997 i noiembrie 2000, evideniind ceea ce, dup opinia autorului, reprezint elemente definitorii ale evoluiei complexe i sectoriale nregistrat ntr-o alt perioad de instabilitate politic, ara fiind guvernat de trei premieri.

Capitolul al treilea sintetizeaz rezultatele obinute n perioada 2001-2004, una distinct i, poate, cu rol de a ndemna la puin meditaie pentru toi acei care s-au succedat la guvernarea rii.

n capitolul al patrulea am analizat datele nregistrate de Romnia n perioada 2000-2014, deci pe un segment de timp mai lung, n care factorul politic a fost diferit i instig la opinii, puncte de vedere bazate pe date comparative. Nu am urmrit ca analiza pe

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acest interval de timp s conduc la responsabilizri, dar dac aceasta va fi tentaia cititorilor, au posibilitatea s o fac.

Capitolul al cincilea prezint, n mod complex, aspectele ce caracterizeaz starea economic a Romniei n cei aproape douzeci i cinci de ani de pia liber.

Urmeaz capitole de analiz a evoluiei principalelor domenii ale economiei naionale, pe care autorul le-a considerat eseniale n evoluia macroeconomic, cum ar fi: industria, agricultura, comerul exterior, construciile, transporturile, serviciile, turismul etc. De asemenea au fost analizate situaia social, piaa financiar, sistemul bancar, n capitole privind omajul, fora de munc, pensionarea etc.

Alte capitole ale acestei analize evideniaz o serie de aspecte cu privire la Produsul Intern Brut, rating-ul Romniei sau potenialul uman al rii, cu accent pe analiza situaiei unor categorii cum sunt pensionarii i omerii.

n aceste capitole se adncete analiza privind evoluia n toi cei peste 25 de ani, cu accent pe ceea ce s-a petrecut n perioada 2012-2014. Am considerat c o astfel de prezentare structurat, pe elementele sale eseniale este indispensabil pentru c ofer posibilitatea unor analize i interpretri complexe.

Finalul lucrrii conine, n loc de anexe, un amplu capitol (pe nelesul tuturor), privind programul post-aderare, ajustat la stadiul de derulare n anul 2014.

Introducerea nu i-a propus s prezinte o evaluare exhaustiv a ceea ce s-a avut n vedere i a ceea ce a rezultat.

Cititorul va avea curiozitatea i poate plcerea de a descoperi n carte elemente eseniale pe care uneori le-a bnuit, poate le-a cunoscut, dar pe care le ntlnete acum exprimate, sper, mai clar.

Cred n cifrele furnizate de Institutul Naional de Statistic,(cruia i mulumesc, pe aceast cale, pentru amplul material de care am beneficiat), care mi-au permis s trag o serie de concluzii pariale i apoi globale, mergnd ntr-o analiz pe etape i sugernd, de cele mai multe ori prin prisma propriei viziuni, cum ar fi trebuit s se procedeze pentru ca Romnia s nu se afle totui, la

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mijlocul anului 2012, n situaia pe care o simim i trim i acum, chiar dac semnele redresrii se fac simite.

M gndesc serios la faptul c intervalul 2008-2012 a fost unul de convulsii majore, influenate negativ i de factorul politic, aflat n perpetu instabilitate, cu toate consecinele ce decurg din aceasta.

Analiznd datele macroeconomice pentru anul 2012, contemplm efecte i mai devastatoare ale crizei financiare asupra Romniei, pe fondul incapacitii managementului guvernamental de a controla i lua msuri de stabilizare macroeconomic.(A fost anul n care la guvernare s-au perindat trei echipe guvernamentale, ultima neputnd beneficia i de necesara coabitare).

Efectele crizei financiare asupra Romniei au lsat urme adnci, care vor putea fi eliminate numai printr-un program economico-social complex, obiectiv i subordonat intereselor Romniei. Ar fi multe de spus despre coninutul acestei lucrri, pe care o supun examenului cititorului care, n mod cert, va gsi lucruri interesante, va fi de acord cu anumite puncte de vedere sau va fi n dezacord cu unele opinii exprimate de autor. Toate au susinere n modul de analiz i le voi mulumi tuturor acelora care vor considera necesar i posibil s sesizeze, editurii i autorului, aspecte cu care nu sunt de acord, precum i sugestii, astfel nct ediiile viitoare, cci vor mai urma, s aib un coninut ct mai obiectiv i aproape de realitate.

Lucrarea se adreseaz specialitilor din Romnia sau din alte ri, n care i-a gsit deja loc n biblioteci de renume mondial, dar i politicienilor autohtoni sau de la Bruxelles, care pot gsi date i aprecieri de natur a-i ajuta la analize mai profunde, pe segmente de activitate, pe specificul preocuprilor lor.

Studiul este util n primul rnd studenilor, masteranzilor i doctoranzilor de la Academia de Studii Economice sau de la alte instituii i faculti cu profil economic din nvmntul superior de stat sau privat, specialitilor i cercettorilor mediului de afaceri intern i internaional i, de ce nu, politicienilor care pot descoperi n aceast carte efectul eforturilor depuse de ei n acest timp.

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Studenii, masteranzii sau doctoranzii vor putea constata c dasclul lor nu se limiteaz doar la a expune de la catedr ci i asum rspunderea n a analiza i interpreta datele din care se desprinde situaia social-economic i trendul de evoluie a Romniei n perioada urmtoare.

Dac multe aprecieri nu sunt pozitive, precizez c acestea aa au rezultat din datele pe care le-am avut la dispoziie, autorul evitnd orice omisiune sau sterilizare a datelor.

Cititorul este cel care va evalua, va putea comenta i, mai ales, va avea argumente practice pentru a aciona n consecin.

Acest al aptesprezecelea volum al lucrrii Romnia 2014. Starea economic pe calea redresrii a fost realizat sub egida Asociaei Generale a Economitilor din Romnia i a Societii Romne de Statistic, organizaii profesionale de prestigiu din Romnia.

Autorul

Bucureti,15 Noiembrie 2014

Introductory chapter

Romania 2014 Economical situation on the recovery path is the 17th annual editorial issue, out of the series being the Economic Publishing House, starting back in 1998. The work analyzes the evolution of the economical situation of Romania until June 2014, which has depreciated on the background of deepening and furthermore because of the effects of the economical-financial crisis on global plan, with devastating effects in our country too. I have suggested, very clearly, even since the 2006 issue, the imminence of the violent touch of the Romanian economy by the effects of the global economic crisis, without the existence of any possibility of avoidance or diminish. Unfortunately for the status of the Romanian economy, the crisis was superimposed on a particular internal political situation (political and moral instability), that turned upside-down the entire social and economical evolution. As from the year 2008, when the first signs of Romanias entry into the economic recession occurred, I have tried, without success, to identify a plan of anti-crisis measures, I have attempted to quantify the effects of the government programs based on pro-active steps, but instead of getting enlightened I have become more skeptic skeptical in respect of the possibility to identify a Romanian strategy meant to stop the very violent effects of the crisis and to allow the way out of this decay, which grinds, without pauses, the Romanian economy, already morally fatigued by the macro-economical dis-equilibrium. After the elections of December 2012, we identify a early almost realistic program that can be put into practice. This appreciation took into account the cost of a presidential campaign without precedent, during which, to achieve the desired purpose, growths in retirement allowances and salaries were made lawful, without economic-financial base, while investments were almost 100% cancelled. This new state of affairs has shaken the political scene and fuelled the style of governing without programme and budgetary adjustment depending on small interests not on the

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need to stop, as much as possible, the crisis effects. The main feature of the period 2009-2012, within the economic and financial strategy, was the seeming confusion superposed to the hidden group interests. To give fluency and ensure a faster correlation of socio-economic evolution of Romania in time, I'll resume and in the sixteenth volume of some aspects that we appreciate to be of importance for the future of the country.Personally, I have never ceased to militate for the need to take proactive measures, that certainly will draw us away from the crisis or at least will attenuate the devastating effects of the global crisis. In the last volumes of this book, published in 2012 and 2013, I have even simulated a number of proactive measures, trying, by forecast analysis, to outline some social-economical effects for Romania. To provide fluency and ensure a faster correlation of the social-economic evolution of Romania in time, I shall reopen in this study too some aspects that I consider to be of importance for the future of our country. The actual internal strategy is supervised by the financial organisms that monitor the compliance with the agreements. I have retained, from those exposed repeatedly by the representatives of the International Monetary Fund, that Romania has to solve two quantitative-qualitative issues. It means the quality infrastructure, including here anything that falls under that category. Also, the quality of the labor force, that must become competitive on European and global plan, must be an absolute priority. The two elements, in quantitative-qualitative evolution, would lead to the access to European funds, that we have ignored for some time because of incapacity of action or because lack of thinking currently at the real perspective to attract direct foreign investments. The IMF representative, and likewise think other foreign representatives, with valences and knowledge in economics or finance, has also signaled that Romanian law is not coherent and stable, and, on this background, there is a certain retention of the foreign investors. I have presented these aspects, to clarify on the fact that Romanias problems are known and discussed at the levels that must be responsible, and on this background, further perplexity appears concerning the lack of strong measures, which have manifested during the period until 2012. Not

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only I, but also other world-renowned economists appreciate that the present economic-financial crisis period should be used by the countries with a lower development level, including Romania, to solve a series of development issues.. This way, at reduced costs, by accessing European funds and foreign entrepreneurship, achieved by international auctions, we would have succeeded a lot in road infrastructure. The privatization, under any conditions, of the state enterprises and administrations meant the sacking of the state and not the efficiency of the respective domains. In this respect, more are to be said, and the reader will find sufficient references within the book. The book will show blank the Romanian deviations and will not attempt to establish the reasons, but will be a continuous alarm signal, that will weak and sensitize the ones that carry the responsibility to the situation that has been reached. Without a strong conviction, based on the internal status (maybe only the serenity that we have surpassed the electoral steamroller) but arguing through the development of the crisis in its countries of origin, I can state that Romania will remain under the deep effect of the crisis, after that the a slight inversion of the evolution trend may begin. This will depend also on the closure of the budgetary execution for 2013, the coherence of the budgetary forecast for 2014-2015 and mostly on process of bringing together the state powers within the framework of the necessary and worthwhile correlation. On this background, by taking into account a series of measures undertaken in 2012-2013, most having social effect, I can state that Romania entered on a sure path towards economic recovery.

Within the previous volume I have forecasted the possibility for 2012, believing that a minimum of pro-active steps, meant to lead to incomes acquiring as well (generating new jobs, collecting income, fighting the corruption, letting a high percentage of the un-seen economy be brought up to daylight) would be taken over. I failed to intuit that the practice to be established would actually consist of the scalpel for the non-aesthetic surgery of the economy (I mean here the consolidated budget). The few social reparatory measures attempted since May 2012, even if they are not

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solid enough, give the perspective of developments in slight increase in the years to come.

Romania will need several years to reach, in real terms, at the economic level and results achieved in December 2007. An analysis on this idea is easy to make, by taking into account the reduction of economic growth, year by year, after 2007, recording in June 2013 some -16% (in nominal terms) and other -12/-13% decreases in real terms, after de-inflation. Thus, and on a moderation background of the economic downfall and maintenance of the macro-economical equilibrium, the recovery will not be realized only by reversing the trend, but also by applying a vigorous strategy that includes complex substantiate measures.

In the appreciation above, I have not considered the especially serious effects that can flow on the financial-economic situation, following the evolutions of the European Union, especially of the euro zone countries, or on wider, global, plan. Greece, Italy, Portugal, Spain, Ireland, have serious financial difficulties, that, if not properly handled, can generate serious effects on the euro. Being in the neighborhood or in union with the mentioned countries, proper attention should be given to the risks to enter in the swirling of the financial-economic crisis effects.

The slight stabilization of economies in countries mentioned above can form the moment of passage towards the step-by-step relaunch of economies in communitary countries

This book consecrates an assiduous work over seventeen years, carried out by the author, who kept on remaining firm and faithful to the spirit of focusing his attention within the limits of a complex macroeconomic analysis, pointing out, without any reserve whatsoever, the hesitating steps taken in the post-adhesion process, which allowed him to tell why and, most of the times, how, things should develop in order to get out of the blind lane where a governing without doubtless targets during a crisis period until 2012 brought us, and make things a little bit better for all of us, as expectation as least.

This book is published at a moment which marks over seven years from the consecration of the adhesion to the European Union

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and underlines the unconvincing way in which Romania valorized certain positive elements granted by the new position, as a communitarian country, as well as the difficulties to face in order to overpass the welter of the lining up with and enforcing the new standards.

Getting access to the communitarian non-refunding funds has been achieved at an extremely low level. Under the circumstances, if we shall compare the Romania contribution to the forming of the European communitarian funds with the total amount of the sums being accessed by our country, we shall face the undesired paradox consisting on the fact that we are a contributing country instead of being a beneficiary one. In the year 2014 is forecasted access of Community funds for over than 25-30 percents, which means a significant plus from previous periods, but still little of what has been allocated to us.

The loans contracted in 2010 with the International Monetary Fund, the World Bank and the European Union, which have not been directed to investment and dynamizing the economy re-launch, would become a stress for Romania. From 2012 onwards, also started the reimbursement of the loan quotas, agreed upon with the creditors and the effects will be felt.

The oscillatory evolution of the GDP in 2011-2013, the alarming budgetary deficit, the inflation rate gallop, the unemployment, the diminished number of the employed persons, the persistence of the number of retired persons at a high quota, the accumulation of a foreign debt, the foreign trade balance deficit, the adverse collection of the budgetary income, the virulence of the un-seen economy, all these are so many explanations for the erosion of the life standard as well as basic arguments for a concrete program aiming the economic revival. In 2014, a package of measures with social character were approved and implemented, being a stimulatory element for the next period.

All these aspects are approached and underlined by figures between the covers of this book.

The previous editions included an ample chapter, now adjusted, dedicated to the requirements implied by both the adhesion

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and the further integration process, emphasizing since that time the fact that the route to follow will be difficult, hard. We have to keep on watching what is going to happen in order to be in the position to compare what will actually be achieved with the authors predictions made many years ago.

The issue of this new work is influenced also by the political ambiguity which characterize the internal situation in Romania. It is not required to be a subtle prophet to suggest that there is a period of great pains to follow, from which there are hardly doubtless achievements to get birth, so that we have to keep on double-crossing ourselves with illusions....

This work undertakes and, Id take the liberty of considering that it hit the target to achieve a detailed analysis, comprehensive and by sectors meantime, of the economic development during the period January 2013 June 2014, but in comparison with other significant periods as well, without targeting categorical assessments, which are the privilege of the interpretation liberty of the reader.

It is compulsory that this seventeenth volume proceeds to a comparative, tri-dimensional analysis, i.e.: first, the present economic and social situation by comparison with the late system; second, the analysis and interpretation of the date all over the period since 1990 up to date; third, the evaluation of the results acquired during the period January 2013 June 2014.

First of all, I have tried to answer a question which is not at all rhetoric, namely: why, did I analyze, in this volume, a larger period of time?

The answer to this question proves to be quite complex but as a synthesis, it should consist of the following points:

the situation of the dynamic political instability which characterized the entire analyzed period, given by the certain parliament majority of the governing coalition, background that makes hard to identify any successful measure of the opposition;

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The impossibility to identify a complex program of anti-crisis measures on short, medium and long term, including pro-active steps as well, which governs that succeeded each other are to subsequently promote them;

The difficulty and impossibility to clarify the effects of the financial crisis, suggested already back in 2006 (see the previous volumes) on the European complex, in general terms, as well as on Romania, particularly;

The lack of arguments to explain the contradiction between the good economic outcomes being achieved in 2007-2008 period, when the USA was already facing some effects of the economic-financial crisis and the disaster occurred after January 2009 until 2012 (from 2013, a revigorating trend has started). This situation cannot be explained by the functioning of the market economy in time of crisis only if considering that the USA are bringing back in discussion the role played by the interventionist State (I am referring here to the process of nationalization in the banking domain, meant to put a break, at least, to the financial crisis) and explained the danger of monetary growth.

Based on such an analysis, the author wished to identify and to suggest the trend of the future development of the socio-economic system from Romania.

Within the chapters of the book, I have insisted on the analysis pointing out the antithesis between the actual results in the field of the economic and social activity, on one hand, and those recorded for the previous periods, on the other hand, along with the comparative analysis of the results as recorded in the field of the legislation in respect of the harmonization process but also in respect of enforcing the legislation in our country.

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At this point, I do believe that there is no exaggeration to conclude that the role of the legislative power has been reduced to risky limits. Considering this background, the credibility, mainly the external one, has been ruined, inducing a negative effect on the foreign capitals which, lacking color and smell but aiming rewarding criteria only, are actually avoiding Romania.

The reader will find in this issue a series of data, that, by sometimes abstracting the tone or putting adjectives on some ascertainments, will transform in a good manual for the understanding of the evolution of the Romanian economy, as a whole (or its principal domains), from 1990 until today.

I have proposed, and I hope that I have succeeded, at least to a certain extent a correct analysis of the data taken into account and a fair interpretation, so that the subsequent conclusions, along with their cold significance, are in line with the real content of the respective data.

It is quite possible that, by the time this b